Looking beyond the high diplomatic activity of the past few weeks and as the American president builds the coalition of the willing, to paraphrase the language of previous regional interventions one should try to have a speculative look at the implications, if the Syrian crisis turns into a regional and ideological conflict.
It is true that the crisis in Syria has been cataclysmic because of the increasing number of victims, its duration and the flow of refugees into neighboring countries, like Jordan and Turkey . With more than 1 million Syrians now resident as refugees in surrounding countries and somewhere between 2.5 and 3.5 million Syrians internally displaced, - Iraq, Jordan, Lebanon, and Turkey all face daunting challenges in feeding and housing the refugees, and their internal political situations have been roiled by disputes on what to do about Syria.
The implications of a possible Syrian descent into chaos can be of enormous magnitude given that the Syrian political opposition remains weak, fragmented, and in exile, while the Free Syrian Army is fragmented, an army in name only. In fact, even though the newly re-branded Syrian National Coalition has widened its base of support and the military opposition has taken the fight throughout the country, Islamist factions, especially the al-Qaeda-aligned Al Nusrah Front, have increased in popularity and power. It is no secret that Islamic extremists, led by the al-Qaeda in Iraq creation, Jabhat al-Nusrah, have made the most gains in all the fighting. The extremists, so far, are the shock troops, willing to take casualties and move from region to region.
Because of this reality, the replacement of the current Syrian regime by a new non-representative democratic government in terms of ethnic and religious inclusion is considered major challenge that could potentially not only lead the Arab country to division but also expand the turmoil into neighbouring countries. The situation requires solutions. This is the way to look at things and one should turn an eye on parts of the Syrian opposition that believe in national unity in the sense that all members of Syrian society have a stake in the future including the Allawites and the minorities. Given that we are running out of time, a common position should be that the Syrian army, a major institution, should remain intact and serve as guarantor of stability that prevents the problems that we saw in Iraq
But again one should no be naïve. Even if tomorrow we get the best government in Syria and the armed forces are functioning well, it will take a couple of years to clean up the bad elements that are inside the borders of Syria today. As King Abdallah of Jordan said in one of his past interviews and, I quote, “The Middle East is a mosaic and the problem that challenges leaders in the Middle East is if there is life after Bashar what, is that? And a lot of people care because the unknown is more scaring than the known”. To move one step further from the Jordanian King’s statement, one has to be aware of how serious and how critical the current stage is, along with the posed security challenges.
The Shia-Sunni competition for leadership of the Muslim world has already been strained by Syria with elements within Jordan, Lebanon, and Turkey taking sides in this doctrinal struggle. The ability of outside powers to interfere in Syria will indoubtedly create long-term instability, possibly divide the country into sectarian enclaves and run the risk of creating a “second Iraq”. In fact, a number of regional experts envision possible sectarian enclaves such as the Alawi coastline with Hezbollah in Lebanon ; the Sunni north, east, and south aligned with Sunnis in Iraq , Jordan , Lebanon , and Turkey ; and Alevis in Turkey with Alawites in Syria .
Interestingly, Israel , while worried over chaos in Syria , has so far avoided direct involvement in the crisis, however, Israel has laid out some security issues that could lead it to become actually involved. The key security issues include, chemical weapons and/or missile delivery systems falling into “hostile” hands like Hezbollah, and al-Qaeda affiliated groups; the existence of extremist groups on the ceasefire line; and the possible destabilization of Jordan.
To be more concrete, Syrian division along sectarian lines will indisputably impact the existent battleground of regional influence. To start, the imperial sphere of Iran that extends to the shores of the Mediterranean is expected to be affected and for this the Islamic Republic will try to guarantee that its projection of power to Syria, Lebanon, and the Palestinian Territories remains intact.
For its part, Turkey, that has played a key role for any change in Syria, expects to be rewarded. Turkey sees any change in Syria as positive to eliminate consolidation of Iranian influence near its borders, and as opportunity to present a soft Islamic model that could influence Islamic-leaning governments which could come to power in the Arab world.
Additionally, the Gulf States would like to see a kind of restoration of the regional balance of power in their favor, if a new Syria, fragmented or otherwise, weakens its alignment with Iran whose regional influence, the last decade, has increased greatly due to the political transformation of Iraq, the presence of Shiite communities in the Persian Gulf and the cementing of relations in the Levant via Syria and Hezbollah.
Last but not least, given that the region is interlinked in terms of politics and society, extremism could spread into other countries. The sum of all fears is that the Syrian conflict and possible division could expand into fitna between the region’s extremists and peoples.
To sum up, it is evident that a divided Syria could lead to an open-ended conflict that could undermine the stability of the region and the future of its people for generations to come; dividing Syria is not in anyone’s interest including the US , and tampering with Syria Syria
Copyright: Rieas.gr-http://rieas.gr/research-areas/editorial/2029-syria-the-puzzle-of-the-day-after.html
Photo accessed at: rodiagnusdei.wordpress.com
Photo accessed at: rodiagnusdei.wordpress.com
