The Resolution of the Cyprus Conflict: A Catalyst for East Mediterranean Security and Cooperation

By:

Antonia DimouRIEAS Senior advisor based in Athens, Greece and Associate at the Centre for Strategic Studies, University of Jordan

John NomikosDirector of the Research Institute for European and American Studies based in Athens, Greec

Copyright: Russian International Affairs Council (RIAC)*

First Publication: 17 October, 2014

The East Mediterranean is on the frontlines of a struggle for peace and economic development where Cyprus holds a central position of geographical and functional importance in terms of security, including energy security. The role of Cyprus in regional security as a host of military operations, including Afghanistan and Kuwait, and as the holder of the British sovereign bases have turned it into an indispensable partner of the West. The island has large expatriate populations from mainland Greece, Russia and the UK, maintains vital economic interests in the wider Middle East, but remains partially occupied by Turkey which has dispatched thousands of soldiers for the protection of an increasing expatriate population of Turkish nationals on the northern part of the island.

Photo: REUTERS/Neil Hall

A watchtower stands along the United Nations

buffer zone in the district of Famagusta, northern Cyprus

The resolution of the Cyprus conflict poses a major challenge given that it is at core not only of solving regional disputes but most importantly of western security strategies. These strategies are outlined in the post-Arab spring era in light of the Syrian conflict, the collapse of Turkey’s foreign policy of “zero-problems-with neighbours”, and the emergence of radical organisations like ISIS that have become powerful in the East Mediterranean. It is in this context that an unprecedented engagement with the Cyprus issue is witnessed throughout 2014 and includes the first time visit in 52 years of an incumbent American vice-president as well as other EU and US high-level visits.

The game changer in resolving the conflict is that Cyprus has the potential to serve as a major energy supplier for Europe and Asia as well as can set the pattern for resolving the Palestinian-Israeli dispute which climaxed this summer with the Gaza war.

 Photo: wikipedia.org 

The gas proven discoveries in Cyprus Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) can definitely contribute to the reduction of the island’s dependence on foreign energy and create prospects for economic advantages given that natural gas is the major source of direct income to the state treasury due to royalties and taxes paid by gas suppliers. International companies like Noble Energy, ENI and KOGAS hold prospecting concessions on offshore blocks 12, 2, 3 and 9 of the Cyprus EEZ. Besides, major oilfield services companies like Halliburton and Schlumberger have based operations for the East Mediterranean in Cyprus, thus providing a vote of confidence regarding the island’s regional energy standing.

Cyprus, however, faces challenges concerning monetizing natural gas resources that are associated with regional export options, such as the pipeline project that would connect regional fields with the Turkish coast. This export option presupposes the resolution of the Cyprus conflict since any pipeline would have to cross Cyprus’s EEZ. Even in the absence of resolution on the Cyprus long-standing conflict, without the existence of mutually agreed maritime boundaries, any possibility of regional development of offshore energy resources becomes difficult. This reality coupled with Turkey’s attempt to capitalize on its conventional military superiority to force energy issues by military action, along with its adoption of a controversial policy when it comes to the delimitation of maritime boundaries, have motivated the search of a breakthrough in the strategic impasse over the island still divided between the Greek-Cypriot and Turkish-Cypriot communities.

Note that Ankara’s energy policies are affected by the situation in the Aegean, where Turkish-Greek negotiations on maritime border demarcation based on the median line principle would deprive it of access to extensive continental shelf rights throughout the Eastern Mediterranean. It is for this reason that Turkey prefers the principle of equity when it comes to the East Mediterranean delimitation of maritime boundaries, but has adopted the principle of median line in the Black Sea.

When it comes to geopolitical reasons for supporting the Cyprus conflict solution which could also serve as the basis for an Israeli-Palestinian settlement, the most relevant are as follows:

First, a Cyprus partition is not deemed beneficial for either country in the region. The 1947 Indo-Pakistani partition is a good example. Though accepted by both sides, it was accompanied by an arms race that has ultimately turned into a nuclear rivalry. Having this model in mind, it is not difficult to understand that the ongoing arms race in Cyprus would guarantee further instability in the wider region.

Photo: community.eldis.org

Another major concern is the possibility of the emergence of fundamental Islamic tides in Northern Cyprus. In case of partition, radicalization of Islamic elements in Northern Cyprus as a result of economic or political unrest is a possible development that runs contrary to the regional security.

Additionally, the possibility of the permanent division of the Cypriot capital will constitute a detrimental development for Israel and the Palestinians, as the current status in Nicosia is similar to the pre-1967 partition of Jerusalem. The Cyprus partition would constitute a bad precedent for the Israeli and Palestinian claims over an undivided Jerusalem, which is one of the major issues to be tackled in any final Arab–Israeli peace agreement. On the contrary, a federal solution would unite Nicosia and could strengthen Israel's and the Palestinians' case for a similar preferred position on the final status of Jerusalem.

Though in a different context, a shared rule arrangement in Cyprus could also be the model for a broader regional structure between Israel and its closest neighbours, namely the Palestinians and Jordan.

Obviously, intensified Western diplomacy that is directed towards resolving the Cyprus issue for an agreement on the political future of the island, will undoubtedly have positive spill-over effects on strategies that can bring the benefits of security and economic gains in the East Mediterranean. With no doubt, time is of essence…

*The Russian International Affairs Council (RIAC) is a non-profit academic and diplomatic think tank that was founded by the Russian Federation Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the Ministry of Education and Science in 2010.

** The article in also available in the Russian language at: http://russiancouncil.ru/inner/?id_4=4626#top 

ΟΡΓΑΝΙΣΜΟΣ ΙΣΛΑΜΙΚΗΣ ΔΙΑΣΚΕΨΗΣ: ΕΝΙΣΧΥΣΗ ΝΕΟΘΩΜΑΝΙΚΗΣ ΑΝΘΕΛΛΗΝΙΚΗΣ ΠΟΛΙΤΙΚΗΣ

της Αντωνίας Δήμου
(Σύμβουλος στο Ινστιτούτο Ευρωπαϊκών και Αμερικανικών Σπουδών (RIEAS) και εταίρος στο Κέντρο για την Ανάπτυξη στη Μέση Ανατολή του Πανεπιστημίου της Καλιφόρνια, Ηνωμένες Πολιτείες)

Copyright: Research Institute for European and American Studies (www.rieas.gr) Publication Date: 8 September 2014

Η 41η Διάσκεψη των ΥΠΕΞ του Οργανισμού Ισλαμικής Διάσκεψης (ΟΙΔ) που πραγματοποιήθηκε στη Τζέντα της Σαουδικής Αραβίας από τις 18 έως τις 19 Ιουνίου 2014 εξέδωσε δύο αποφάσεις που λήφθηκαν από την ολομέ-λεια του Οργανισμού, οι οποίες εγγίζουν άμεσα την Ελλάδα και την Κύπρο. Η πρώτη απόφαση φέρει τίτλο «η Κατάσταση στην Κύπρο» (Res. No19/41 POL), και η δεύτερη τιτλοπορείται ως: «η Κατάσταση της Τουρκο-μουσουλμανικής Μειονότητας στη Δυτική Θράκη και του Μουσουλμανικού Πληθυσμού της Δωδεκανήσου» (Res. No 3/41-MM)..... Read more

NATIONAL SECURITY & ANALYSIS IN THE MEDITERRANEAN REGION - RIEAS

The Research Institute for European and American Studies (RIEAS) organized the 1st Executive Security Training Seminar entitled: "National Security and Intelligence Analysis in the Mediterranean Region". The training seminar, which took place in an Athenian hotel on 7th-10th July 2014, is part of the activities that are planned, implemented and supported organizationally by the Research Institute for European and American Studies... Read more

Conference Proceedings; 
Edited by Antonia Dimou 
                      & 
Antonia Chatzopoulou

PREFACE

The Mediterranean is a geopolitically significant region which is, however, overwhelmed by security problems considered as vital ranging from interstate conflicts, intrastate crises and transnational threats with most prominent the proliferation of conventional and mass destruction weapons, cyber-warfare and terrorism. A comprehensive approach to security in the Mediterranean, including hard security-soft security integration and civil-military-private sector coordination is the key to stability.  

If the imperative for concord over instability prevails, then the dividents that will accrue in the entire Mediterranean will be multifold.  What some of the threats to stability present, the level of their complexities and whether they can be coped  efficiently under the current regional exigencies as evidenced in Syria and Libya, have led to the formation of the agenda of the 1^st training executive seminar of the Research  Institute for European and American Studies.

An underlying theme of the seminar has been security as a prerequisite for foreign direct investment that can help overcome the legacies, psychological and otherwise that have burdened the Greek and other regional economies for so long. As it is widely acknowledged, issues of national security related to poor governance affect international economic transactions and have become more complicated after September 11^th, 2001 when the term was expanded to include human security in the context of international trade.

Equally primary topic has been the presentation of the challenges related to CBRN risks and the illegal export of sensitive military technology as well as the outline of a series of effective strategies to mitigate risks through coordination of different national agencies like the intelligence communities, and cooperation between regional countries and international organizations. 

In articulating their presentations, instructors made no pretense to providing answers to complex issues addressed. As the chairman of the executive seminar noted in his concluding remarks, “instructors treated their topics with sincerity and clarity, and thus increased our understanding of the complex issues involved”.

This precisely has been the goal of the Research Institute for European and American Studies (RIEAS). In the context of its training activities, RIEAS sustains keen interest in the affairs of the Mediterranean region and supports a holistic approach to security encouraging cooperation and dialogue to identify contemporary risks and provide solutions.

The current publication of the summary of the conference proceedings serves as guide to the instructors’ information sharing and presentations with focus on the multi-dimensional challenges facing the Mediterranean.

Be that as it may, challenges still lie ahead…

Antonia Dimou,                                                                                                               Editor                                                                                                                          
August 2014

INTELLIGENCE AND BUILDING OF DEMOCRACY IN JORDAN

By Antonia Dimou
(RIEAS Senior Advisor and Associate at the CSS, University of Jordan)

Reproduced by the Research Institute for European and American Studies (www.rieas.gr) Publication Date: 27 August 2014)

The relationship between democracy and the character of secret intelligence presents a composite two-sided puzzle. On the one side, the very concept of democracy demands that an intelligence agency serves democratic interests by providing one country's security and preparedness against potential threats both internal and external. The core notion is that a stronger country can turn itself into a heaven where democracy can continue to be practiced. On the other side, intelligence investigative methods in many countries occur outside the context of democratic control and oversight mechanisms, thus surfacing an inherent conflict.

That said the role of intelligence in the building of democracy and political stability in the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan is crucial. Jordan, strategically located in the Middle East, presents a long-run import-export relationship. On the one hand, Jordan, a country of few natural resources, imports oil products and natural gas to meet its energy needs. On the other hand, Jordan exports a valuable resource which is security in terms of intelligence, geographic security, and stability...... Read more

Antonia Dimou: "Jordan and the Security Challenges of the Arab Spring"

*Speech delivered in the context of the 2013 Annual IIHA Conference that was organised in Athens, 21-23 June 2013.  

Interview excerpts

Interview excerpts of Antonia Dimou, Associate at the CSS-University of Jordan, with Ana Blazevic for Nova TV in Croatia.

Hoćemo li raditi do 67 godine života?
Prijedlozi MMF-a za Hrvatsku nisu nimalo popularni. Zato smo pričali s radnicima, sindikalistima, ekonomskim stručnjacima, ali i stanovnicima Zambije i Jordana.

(Translation) Are we going to work up to 67 years of age?
IMF suggestions for Croatia are not at all popular. So we talked with workers, unions, economic experts, but also residents of Zambia and Jordan.

For more view at:
http://provjereno.dnevnik.hr/clanak/provjereno/hocemo-li-raditi-do-67-godine-zivota.htmlhttp://provjereno.dnevnik.hr/clanak/provjereno/hocemo-li-raditi-do-67-godine-zivota.html

provjereno.dnevnik.hr

ENRICHING THE MIDDLE EAST’S ECONOMIC FUTURE CONFERENCE 14TH DOHA FORUM (MAY 12-14, 2014), QATAR

Copyright: Research Institute for European and American Studies,  Athens, Greece Dr. John Nomikos, Director of RIEAS and Ms Antonia Dimou, senior RIEAS  advisor participated in the 14th Doha Forum and Enriching the Middle East's Economic future conference which wrapped up ceremonies on  the 14th of May, concluding two days of talks which focused on the  year’s international economic developments.  Held at Ritz Carlton-Doha, the Forum co-sponsored by the Center for  Middle East Development of the UCLA attracted 700 high-profile  delegates from around the world including a number of business  leaders.  Doha Forum and Enriching the Middle East's Economic future conference  convened a workshop at Al Mukhtasar-1 titled "Eastern Mediterranean  Energy Discoveries: Opportunities and Challenges" moderated by  Ms Dimou and with Dr. Nomikos being one of the major speakers.   Photo No 1: Workshop on East Med energy - Family speakers photo:  From R to L: John Gauci-Maistre, Chairman, GM Corporate and Fiduciary  Services, Saadet Gülden Ayman, Chair, International Relations  Department, University of Istanbul, Antonia Dimou, senior RIEAS advisor,   Antoine Haddad, Director, Dar al-Tanmiya Ltd., Yiorghos Leventis,  Director, International Security Forum. Photo No 2: Workshop on East Med energy - Speakers Panel:  From R to L: Dr. John Nomikos, RIEAS Director, Saadet Gülden Ayman,  Chair, International Relations Department, University of Istanbul,  Antonia Dimou, senior RIEAS advisor, Yiorghos Leventis, Director,  International Security Forum, Antoine Haddad, Director,  Dar al-Tanmiya Ltd., John Gauci-Maistre, Chairman, GM Corporate and Fiduciary Services.

EAST MEDITERRANEAN ENERGY DISCOVERIES:OPPORTUNITIES FOR GREECE AND EUROPE

Antonia Dimou
(Center for Strategic Studies (CSS), University of Jordan & RIEAS Senior Advisor)

John Nomikos
(RIEAS Director)

Copyright: Research Institute for European and American Studies (www.rieas.gr) based in Athens, Greece. (Publication Date: 13 April 2014).




The energy findings of the East Mediterranean could ensure Europe’s energy security in terms of alternative supply sources and delivery routes. Of particular importance in the European energy security context is that a size-able proportion of confirmed discoveries are situated in the Exclusive Economic Zone of Cyprus, a EU member state, while more discoveries are on the way. ....Read more

http://rieas.gr/images/tonia15.pdf

The Clock is Ticking on Jordan’s Media and Press Reforms

By Antonia Dimou

April 3, 2014 5:00 am

Published in Sharnoff's Global Views, http://www.sharnoffsglobalviews.com/jordan-media-reforms-256/

Copyright: Sharnoff's Global Views

     Credit: Jordan Media City

Jordan’s speedy and practical steps to unleash genuine media and press reforms aim to reflect the Kingdom’s vision of comprehensive modernization and development.

The Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan has one of the most open press and media sectors in the Middle East. Since the early days of the Arab Spring, Jordan has engaged in reforms intended at active citizenship and better governance.

The case of Jordan confirms that the relationship between press, media and political reforms is evolutionary. Political reforms entail a process of dialogue, inclusion and institution-building that needs time to flourish and likewise, the enabling environment for effective press and media takes time to develop.

The introduction of the new amended Jordanian constitution in 2011 was in line with the kingdom’s guarantee of freedom of speech and expression, and provided the amendment of the Press and Publications Law of 1998 that entered into force in June 2013 with the aim to enhance the media and press environment.

Realistically, Jordan hosts several independent newspapers, and the government has a majority stake in major daily Al-Rai, and a minority stake in the second largest in circulation nation-wide daily Al-Dustour.

The Kingdom also hosts the Jordan Media City that was launched in 2001 as the first private media city in the region with the aim to provide the regional and international media industry with state of the art technologies. Satellite dishes are allowed, and pan-Arab news channels remain popular.

Reportedly, 97 percent of households in Jordan have a television set and of those, 90 percent have satellite dishes. Networks like al-Jazeera and al-Arabiya with broadcast coverage of the political discourse and developments in the Arab world reach Jordanian viewers. The use of internet has increased and reportedly, more than 35 percent of the population has access to the web.

Legal amendments

With a royal stamp, amendments to the Press and Publications Law primarily dealt with the regulation of websites accessible in Jordan. Specifically, amendments intended to regulate websites, hold the responsible parties accountable, and place an obligation on individuals or entities interested in covering Jordan’s internal and external news to register and get licensed, lowering registration fees from JD 10,000 to JD 1,000.

Amendments contained four major changes to the original Press and Publications Law of 1998, starting with Article 49 which requires that all electronic publications, irrespective of their location of operation that publish news, press reports and comments relevant to the domestic or external affairs of Jordan must be registered and licensed with the Department of Press and Publications “by virtue of the Director’s decision.”

Article 49 provides that if an electronic publication is found to be in violation of the amended Law, the Director has the authority to block the pertinent website and close its administrative offices located in Jordan.

The second major amendment has been that of Article 38 which prohibits the publication of material that offends religious beliefs, and expands the notion of individual dignity by prohibiting the publication of “anything that includes contempt, slander, or defamation of individuals or affects their personal freedom.”

The third amendment that was made to Article 48 of the Press and Publications Law imposes a lower fine on Periodical Publications that are issued without a license, foreseeing that Publications which violate the Law will be fined an amount not less than one thousand dinars and not more than five thousand dinars.

Last but not least, the fourth major amendment provides that tribunals have jurisdiction over Press and Publications Law cases related to crimes committed either in violation of the Press and Publications Law, or against the domestic and external security of Jordan.

A new era of reform?

The amended legislation has been viewed as an institutionalized reform. Arguably, the operation of news websites and community radio stations has pushed the Kingdom’s overall reform envelope and favored the media’s engagement with local issues.

News websites have begun to focus on feature stories, provide analysis and demand action when problems are brought into the open, arousing public interest and interaction. In practical terms, the press and the media have started to act as magistrate getting rid of the stigma of one-sided news coverage by reporting extensively on cases of domestic corruption.

Most representative corruption case that was covered by the online and printed press was the one of a former intelligence chief. According to online and printed articles, Jordan’s former head intelligence for the period of 2005-2008 was sentenced to 13 years in prison on charges of embezzling public funds, money laundering and abuse of office.

The 2012 amendments to the Press and Publications Law of 1998 have meant to enhance the media and press environment. However, critics argue that implementation suffers from arbitrary classification and distribution of information by different ministries and state institutions.

Critics also complain that while the outlets for news have increased, they are often blocked from obtaining information on government policies and officials. Concurrently, there is a prevailing belief among local journalists that a “soft containment” policy is pursued by business entities in an attempt to dominate the media sector.

A recent survey conducted by Al Quds Centre for Political Studies showed that methods of soft containment on journalists are practiced by businessmen with a percentage of 69, influential figures with a percentage of 32.2, and civic society organizations with a percentage of 31.

In a coordinated effort to address press and media reform gaps, the Lower House’s Public Freedoms Committee currently works to revisit several laws governing the media, and the freedom of expression to come up with new amendments. As stipulated by the Constitution, it is feasible for the Jordanian legislative bodies to repeal or amend by October 1, 2014, all law, regulations and legislative acts relating to the constitutional amendments.

It is in this context that Jordan’s parliamentary committee has formed several teams to study the Press and Publications law in collaboration with the Jordan Press Association, the Centre for Defending the Freedom of Journalists, the government, the National Centre for Human Rights, and media entities to study the loopholes in the law and come up with a unified vision on how best to enhance press and media reforms.

The parliamentary committee also looks into the contention of various articles, including the one that gives the Press and Publications Department director the authority to block news websites that do not obtain licences in accordance with the law.  Reportedly in 2013, the access to some 250 websites was blocked as they did not register and obtain a license with the Press and Publications Directorate.

The committee also looks into technical issues like that of cancelling an article which conditions that news websites must be run by an editor-in-chief who has been a member of the Jordan Press Association for at least five years.

Looking towards the future

Undoubtedly, Jordan’s speedy and practical steps to unleash genuine media and press reforms aim to reflect the Kingdom’s vision of comprehensive modernization and development. It is in this context that Jordan engages in constant dialogue with international agencies and organizations.

A conference titled “Legal Media Dialogue” was held at the Dead Sea in March 2014 with the participation of lawmakers, journalists and legal experts to test the resolve of all stakeholders to improve freedom of the press.

Interestingly in 2013, the UN Universal Periodic Review of Jordan’s human rights record issued 18 recommendations, of which 15 were accepted by the government, substantially calling for cancelling or amending articles in the Penal Code that impose restrictions on the freedom of expression, and on amending the Press and Publications Law to ensure the full protection of freedom of speech.

Additionally, Jordan cooperates closely with the EU which previously funded UNESCO’s project titled “Enhancing Professional and Accurate Media Reporting on the Electoral Process,” and currently has extended support for a 4-year project entitled “Support to Democratisation, Civil Society and Media in Jordan.”

Notably, under an EU-Jordan agreement for the period 2013-2014, the European Commissionwill provide €10 million to Jordan to support civil society and the media. The agreement aims at strengthening democracy in Jordan through increased participation of citizens in political life and through building capacity for an independent, quality based media sector.

Similarly, Jordanian authorities and civil society coordinate with the US Agency for International development to implement the Jordan Media Strengthening Program that aims to promote sustainable and professional media system that provides citizens the information and news necessary to participate effectively in political institutions.

The program offers training opportunities for professional journalists, encourages sustainable media management practices such as for community radio, promotes skills amongst mid-career journalists, and provides targeted advice to regulatory authorities and policy makers to formulate a legal environment conducive to media reforms.

Evidently, Jordan is offered the golden opportunity, as result of preparation, consistent work, and dedication, to create blooming of reforms in the press and the media whose ability to bring about accountability and transparency is the bedrock of democratic evolutions, with no shortcuts permitted.

Jordan's Energy Policy Key to Its Economy

By Antonia Dimou

Published by Worldpress, March 31, 201

     Al Zaatari Refugee Camp in September 2013. (Photo: Bidna Capoeira)

Copyright: Worldpress

The crisis in Syria and the challenges of a changing Egypt continue to drive Jordan's politics and economics related to energy. Jordan is a flambeau of stability in a turbulentregion, but repeated and extensive disruptions to natural gas deliveries from Egypt due to the damage of the Sinai pipelineas well as the continuing flow of Syrian refugees have pushed Jordan to the verge of a financial crisis. These factors have compelled the kingdom to use more expensive fuel to maintain domestic energy supplies, and have complicated the roadmap for economic development.

Rising energy consumption coupled with decreasing security of energy supply, alongside the Syrian refugee crisis, have impacted Jordan's annual budgets and broader development goals. Pressure has increased on scarce national resources, especially with the influx of Syrians, who need electricity and gas, commodities considered as basic needs. According to official estimates, subsidy allocations are expected to rise to $1.79 billion for electricity and $180 million for household gas annually.

Additional pressures on energy systems are expected in coming years. As result of the Syrian crisis, Jordan's national resilience plan for 2014-2016 foresees an additional power demand in cities with an estimated capital investment of $337.5 million. New electricity power allocations valued at $14 million in capital costs and $5.6 million per month in operational costs are predicted for the Zaatari refugee camp. For expanding access to water in the camp, which sits over Jordan's largest aquifer, there is demand to power two artesian wells that have already been drilled, under a monthly operational cost of $122,000. To avert power shortages on a national level, the need for additional capacity for electricity in 2013 led Samra Electric Power company to set up a gas turbine with an installed capacity of 146 MW at an estimated cost of $110 million.

Jordan's economy has been hit hard by exogenous shocks that have adversely affected energy and foreign direct investment, thus widening the budget deficit and slowing growth. For the return of fiscal and energy policies to a sustainable path, with simultaneous protection against additional shocks, Jordan has exercised a multi-fold policy in coordination with international institutions and allies. Jordan pledged for financial assistance from the IMF under a 36-month Stand-by Arrangement (SBA), which provides liquidity of $2 billion between 2012 and 2015 and supports a socially acceptable fiscal consolidation. Under the IMF program, to achieve energy pricing reform and liberalization of the entire energy sector, the kingdom minimized fuel subsidies, raised electricity prices for industrial consumers and began raising power prices for households through a phased program. Concurrent measures, however, were taken to protect low- and medium-income households with the raise of public-sector wages and pensions, while low-income earners in the private sector received a separate compensation scheme.

The United States stood solidly behind Jordan's efforts to weather the Syrian crisis and its negative impact on fiscal and energy policies. Last year the U.S. Congress approved a $1.25 billion loan guarantee for Jordan, and is expected to authorize an additional $1 billion in loan guarantees for 2014. Under a loan guarantee, the United States essentially acts like a co-signer on loans, and would be responsible for repaying the principal and interest should Jordan default. Overall, the traditional annual supplemental funding, the cost of the loan guarantees and U.S. funding to the kingdom for 2013-2014 will reach nearly $2 billion, which translates into a 3 percent spur in per-capita GDP.

Signs of recovery appeared in 2013, with a 20 percent rise in investment, improved confidence in the currency, a near doubling of reserves to $12 billion in one year alone and a revival of exports. Jordan's economic growth rate is expected to climb to 5 percent in 2016 from an estimated 3 percent for 2014. The budget deficit is expected to be slashed to 4 percent of GDP in 2014 from 8 percent since 2011, excluding foreign aid. Enforced economic policies aim to reduce the public debt to a manageable 60 percent of GDP, equivalent to Jordan's level before the 2011 crisis, which elevated debt to the current level of 75 percent. 

Jordan's case shows the importance of applying structural reforms with the support of international institutions and major allies. The kingdom's objective to increase energy security and diversify energy resources, as envisaged in the 2013 National Efficiency Action Plan, focuses on the expansion of renewable energy from 1 percent of the energy mix in 2010 to 10 percent by 2020, with 20 percent energy efficiency expansion by 2020. Renewable energy options will support solar lighting solutions, thus minimizing electricity operational costs. For the period 2014-2016, the plan calls for deployment of 38,000 solar water heaters in residences, 3 million energy-efficient lights in buildings and the construction of a 10MW solar facility.

A liquefied natural gas terminal will be constructed in Aqaba that will reduce dependency on gas supplies from Egypt and reduce the costs of electricity generation starting in 2015. The construction of modern conventional generation plants is being fast-tracked. Jordan aims not only to alleviate economic pressures from the growing domestic energy consumption, but also to become a major energy transit hub between the region and Africa. Jordan recently signed a deal with Egypt and Iraq to extend an oil pipeline from Iraq's Basra to Egypt via Jordan's Aqaba. Egypt is allegedly prepared to receive Iraqi oil at its refineries and facilitate exports to Sudan and other African countries. Under the agreement, an additional pipeline will be built to connect the under-construction LNG terminal in Aqaba with the Arab Gas Pipeline that stretches from El Arish in Egypt to the north of Jordan and continues through Syria to Lebanon. The pipeline willtransfer gas to power-generation plants in Jordan along the pipelineas early as 2015.

On a separate deal with Iraq, the existent pipeline linking the two countries is projected to export 2.25 million barrels of Iraqi oil per day through Jordan, thus generating $2 billion to $3 billion per year in revenues for the kingdom, while Iraq is committed toprovide Jordan with oil at preferential prices. Additionally, Noble Energy, a heavy U.S. investor in Israel's fields, signed a contract worth $500 million to supply 66 billion cubic feet of gas from Israel's Tamar field to Jordan's Arab Potash and its affiliate Jordan Bromine. The sale of Israeli gas to Jordan falls within the kingdom's broad strategy for transformational change in energy supply, including the diversification of liquefied natural gas imports from alternative sources in the region. 

Undoubtedly, energy can serve as game changer, at the nexus of economics and geopolitics. Jordan's pursuit of economic reforms and energy security present a major challenge. But with the challenge comes an opportunity that could lead to a better future for the kingdom's people and its coming generations.

Powering the Future: The European Union and the East Mediterranean Energy Discoveries

European Business Review, Issue 2, March-April 2014

Op-ed by Antonia Dimou on Energy Security pp. 20-21