Israel-Syria

The compromise for Golan Heights more possible than ever!

Exclusive, DefenseNet, October 2007*

Despite the escalation in the Israeli-Syrian bilateral relations, both sides have approached each other via representatives for investigative and informal negotiation aiming at resolving the long troubling issue of the Golan Heights..

By Antonia Dimou

Despite the escalation in the Israeli-Syrian bilateral relations, both sides have approached each other via representatives for investigative and informal negotiation aiming at resolving the long troubling issue of the Golan Heights. This is yet another proof that military conflicts are merely another “tool” of the politicians, or “…the continuation of politics by other means”, according to Carl von Clausewitz. In the following analysis, the fascinating background of these unofficial negotiations is unfolded through official state documents, pending the most appropriate political concurrence for the materialization of the plans.

Why now?

The reasons making the restarting of negotiations inevitable between the two states are obvious. From the Syrian point of view, Damascus is realizing that Israel’s military supremacy derives from Israel’s beneficial relationship with the United States. Signing a peace agreement would increase the possibility for American help in replacing the outdated ex-soviet armament of Damascus. Another important expectation of Syria is its integration to the global economic system. It is worth mentioning that Syria had already made the strategic decision to move forward for a political settlement of the Arab-Israeli conflict. The materialization of this decision however was postponed by the damaging influence of the signing of the treaty of Oslo to the country’s negotiating status.

From the Israeli point of view, since Syria and Lebanon are still functioning as communicating vessels, signing a peace agreement with Syria is expected to eventually lead to a settlement with Lebanon as well. Consequently, even with the Palestinian issue unresolved, completing the circle of peace procedure with Syria will assure internationally recognized borders on the north and north east, and additionally, that the full activation of the agreements with Egypt and Jordan will move forward. It thus hardly needs mentioning that the solidification of peace with the neighboring Arab states stretching from Algeria to the Persian Gulf, will favor the economic spread of Israeli businesses as well as making massive investments not possible at the moment.

At the same time, another good reason for restarting peace talks is Israel’s realization of the limits of its military potential to deal effectively with all the multidimensional strategic threats deriving from such a hostile environment. So, the cultivating of peace talks favoring conditions, will not totally annihilate all the threats, but will certainly stop any manifestation of revisory behavior.

The approach with the Syrian side has solid foundations since the Israeli government has supported with official documents the principles of “total territorial withdrawal from the Golan Heights and return to the 4th of July 1967 borderline”. It is noteworthy the Jerusalem Post publication on the 14th of December 1998 of a part of a government document which dated 29th of August 1998 and mentioned that “…Israel is to withdraw from Syrian territory, by adapting the land-for-peace formula in accordance with the 242 and 338 decisions of the Security Council which supports the right of all states to have safe and recognized borders on the basis of the international limits of 1923 (…) The withdrawal will be materialized in three stages during a period which will be set by the respected countries in order to follow a regularization of interstate relations by mutual exchange of ambassadors.”

It is also worth mentioning of the interventional role that American tycoon Ronanld Loder tried to play between the late president Khafez Assad and Benjamin Netanyahu, prime minister of Israel at the time, by presenting to the Syrian side a document titled “Loder, on behalf of the Israeli Prime Minister”, which included a proposal for the settling of the borderline on the basis of the 4th of June of 1967 geographical limits.

The content of negotiations
The negotiations between Syria and Israel are expected to be based on the mutually agreed agenda for the second round of the peace talks held in the American town of Shepherdstown in January of 2000. That agenda includes issues which are directly connected with the core of the Syrian-Israeli differences and are related to the settlement of security issues, the fate of the Israeli settlers of the Golan Heights, the fate of the prisoners of war and the specification of the border line.

More specifically, the two countries have already negotiated the gradual withdrawal of Israeli forces from the Golan Heights during a time period not exceeding two and a half years. In the issue of military security, Syria has withdrawn its initial objection in maintaining the surveillance and control station on the mount Hermona, on the condition that Israeli soldiers will be replaced by Americans. In addition, the need to create mutual demilitarized zones to balance the loss of strategic depth, especially on behalf of Israel, has been acknowledged by all sides. In particular, Israel demands the creation of three demilitarized zones. The first will cover the entire Golan. The second which is the most debated, has been suggested to spread until Damascus and be free from battle tanks, long range artillery and anti-aircraft missiles, in order to ensure that Syria will not be able to launch another surprise attack against Israel. Syria protests due to the need for significant military forces to exist around Damascus in order to ensure the survival of the existent regime.

The Syrian side however has initially agreed to decrease the presence of its 6 army divisions in the area, but rejects the Israeli demand to maintain only two divisions. The third zone has been suggested to spread to the north of Damascus, while on its behalf Israel is willing to demilitarize a specific zone along the newly specified borderline. Regarding the flaming issue of the approximately 17.000 Israeli settlers of the Golan Heights, there appears to be a significant difference in viewpoints. The Israeli side is persisting on its position that the settlers should have the right to remain at their homes, even after the militant forces withdraw.

On a different case, the Israeli side has clarified that the American side will be called to pay the price of a possible displacement of the settlers back within the state of Israel. This cost according to Yediot Aharonot daily, is estimated at half a million US dollars for each settler totaling 10 billion dollars and additionally 8 million dollars for the displacement of the existent military bases. As far as the Syrian side is concerned, the solution is much simpler. According to International Law, in particular according to the forth Geneva convention, the Israeli settlers have illegally settled on the occupied Golan Heights, and as such they have to abandon the area.

Regarding the sensitive issue of prisoners of war, the Israeli side demands, as part of mutual trust building policy, to return the corps of Israeli military agent Eli Cohen and to supply information about the fate of Zacharia Baumel, Zvi Feldman, Yehuda Katz as well as the Israeli Air Force pilot Ron Arad which is rumored to have been delivered to Iran by the Syrian Forces.

A major issue for negotiate remains of course the settling of the inter-state borders with regard to administration of water resources which was the reason for the failure of the most recent negotiations. In particular, the Israeli side explicitly denies satisfying the Syrian demand for written commitment to clarify the withdrawal of militant forces from the limits of the borders of 1967 (though this demand has been accepted as a basis to restart negotiations), on the basis that any political conversation on the subject should be made with this in mind beforehand, so as to settle such issues of major interest, such as the distribution of water resources.

In particular, the without conditions withdrawal of Israeli forces from the Golan Heights to the geographical limits of 1967, will automatically provide Syria access to the eastern banks of Tiveriad lake, which Israel regards as a reserve of strategic nature an reject any possibility of Syrian participation to the control of its water supplies.

In conclusion, the return of the two countries to the table of negotiations is merely a matter of time. This is because the freezing of the peace process with Syria involves the conservation of a war climate with both neighboring states of Lebanon and Syria, thus postponing the real, solid Israeli approach with other neighboring Arab states, and additionally the possibility of Israel having a major peripheral hegemonic role in the areas of economy and security.

*(translated from the Greek text initially published in Stratigiki magazine, October 2007)