Latest Poll of the Palestinian Centre for Policy and Survey Research

(Photo from: arabinfomall.bibalex.org)

By Antonia Dimou

Reproduced by Middle East Observer, Issue #4, Vol. 2 , March-June 2011

The Palestinian Centre for Policy and Survey Research (PSR) based in Ramallah conducted an opinion poll in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip between 17-19 March that coincided with the revolutionary wave of protests that swept the Arab World leading to regime change in Egypt and Tunisia, with the US veto that blocked a UN Security Council resolution condemning Israeli settlements’ activities, and with the release of leaked Palestinian documents of the PLO negotiations department by al Jazeera satellite TV.

The opinion poll covers issues related to the events in the Arab World, the leaks by al Jazeera, Palestinian domestic conditions, the performance of the governments of Salam Fayyad and Ismail Haniyeh in the West Bank and Gaza respectively at the time of polling, the balance of power between Fateh and Hamas, and the views of the public on the most vital Palestinian goals as well as the problems confronting the Palestinian society.


Findings of the first quarter of 2011 showed that Palestinians were affected differently by regional and domestic events. To begin with, the revolutionary events in the Arab World seemed to pose a threat primarily to Hamas in the Gaza Strip rather than to Fateh in the West Bank. Findings showed that two thirds (67%) of Gazans believed that there was a need for demonstrations in the Gaza Strip, while the picture was different in the West Bank where only one third (36%) believed there was need to demonstrate.


What is interesting to cite is that by contrast, if demonstrations were to erupt in the Gaza Strip, demands and slogans by 51% would focus not only on ending the West Bank-Gaza Strip split, but also on the absence of freedoms, while, if demonstrations erupted in the West Bank, demands and slogans by 24% would focus on ending occupation. An interesting finding that partly explains the necessity for the reconciliation agreement between Fateh and Hamas later the same month is that 64% of the Palestinians in the Gaza Strip believed that there was urgency for demonstrations demanding regime change compared to only 36% in the West Bank.


An overwhelming majority of 92% sympathized with the demonstrators in Arab countries such as Egypt, Tunisia, and Yemen and 41% believed that the first basic demand of the demonstrators in Egypt was to end the state of poverty and unemployment, 38% to safeguard freedom from oppression, and 11% to end corruption. Additionally, two thirds (66%) expected that the fall of the Mubarak regime in Egypt would lead to the permanent opening of the Rafah crossing with Egypt, 92% sympathized with demonstrators in the Arab World, and also two thirds (64%) expected that developments in the Arab World would have a positive impact on Palestinian conditions.


Findings show that the Palestinian Authority (PA) and its leadership were negatively affected by the al Jazeera leaks with a decrease in support for Fateh and a similar decrease in the level of satisfaction with the performance of President Mahmud Abbas. Several factors led to this outcome: First, al Jazeera remains the most watched TV news station in the Palestinian territories, and second, while the PA leadership in the West Bank defended itself by accusing al Jazeera of conspiring against it, a large majority of Palestinians believed that the satellite TV station’s goal was to seek the truth and not to conspire against the PA.


Moreover, in responding to the leaks, the PA’s case remained unconvincing in the eyes of a large majority of Palestinians. Above all else, and based on the leaks, half of the public concluded that the PA’s negotiating position was not committed to the vital goals and interests of the Palestinian people. Specifically, if presidential elections were to take place in the time of polling, Palestinian President Abbas would receive 55%, and Hamas leader Haniyeh 38%. Looking ahead the day after Abbas, it is important to underline the poll’s finding according to which, if the competition for the presidency was between Marwan Barghouti, who is imprisoned in Israel, and Haniyeh, the former would receive 64% and the latter 31%. If new parliamentary elections were to be held in the time of polling, Fateh would receive 40%, and Hamas 26%, while all other lists combined 12%, and 22% were undecided. For the vice-presidency, once again Marwan Barghouti received the majority by 30%, while 18% selected Ismail Haniyeh, 14% selected Salam Fayyad, and 11% Mustafa Barghouti.

When asked about domestic conditions 70% believed there is corruption in the PA institutions in the West Bank and 59% believed that there is corruption in the Hamas government in Gaza. Concurrently, 33% believed that people in the West Bank could criticize the PA without fear and only 19% believed that people in the Gaza Strip could criticize the authorities there without fear. Additionally, only 21% described conditions in the Gaza Strip as good or very good and 33% described conditions in the West Bank as good or very good. On the perception of personal safety and security the percentage stood at 54 in the West Bank and 67 in the Gaza Strip.


When asked about the US role in the resolution of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, findings showed that the US use of its veto power to block UN Security Council resolution condemning Israeli settlement activities brought a severe blow to Palestinian public readiness to accept a large US role in the peace process. The poll found that the percentage of those in favour of such US role decreased considerably to a small minority, when in previous surveys, a large majority favoured a greater US intervention in the peace process. Specifically, a large majority of 69% expressed opposition to a larger US role in the peace process. By contrast, an August 2009 poll by the PRS showed that a majority of 61% indicated support for a larger US role in the peace process. Also interestingly, a majority of 56% supported the Arab Peace Initiative which calls for Israeli withdrawal to the lines of 1967, the establishment of a Palestinian state, and the resolution of the refugee problem based on UN resolution 194 in return for an Arab recognition of Israel and normalization of relations with it.


Findings also showed that 48% support and 50% oppose a mutual recognition of national identity in the sense that Palestinians will recognize Israel as the state for the Jewish people and Israelis will recognize Palestine as the state for the Palestinian people after all conflicting issues are settled and a Palestinian state is established. Because of the cessation of negotiations with Israel, the Palestinian public is divided over the best means for breaking the deadlock: 33% prefers to go to the UN Security Council to obtain recognition of a Palestinian state while 25% prefers a return to confrontation and armed conflict against Israel, 18% prefers peaceful and non-violent, confrontations, and 17% prefers the dissolution of the PA. Two thirds believe that the chances for the establishment of a Palestinian state alongside Israel in the next five years are slim or non existent.


When asked about their perception of Israel’s long term goals, the largest percentage (60%) indicated that the goal of Israel is to extend its state to the whole area between the Mediterranean Sea and the Jordan River and to expel its Palestinian population, while 21% indicated that the Israeli goal is to annex the West Bank. Only 17% believed that Israel’s long term goal is to ensure its security and to withdraw from all or parts of the West Bank.


When asked about the most vital Palestinian goals, 45% believed that the most vital goal for the Palestinian people should be the end of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and the establishment of an independent state. 27% articulated that the most vital goal is the right of return, and 10% supported the build-up of a democratic political system that will respect the freedoms and the rights of Palestinians. On the question of the problems confronting nowadays the Palestinian society, 28% supported that the most serious problem is poverty and unemployment, another 28% said that it is the absence of national unity due to the Fateh-Hamas split at the time of polling, 22% supported that it is the continuation of conflict with Israel and settlement expansion, and 11% said it is corruption of PA, Hamas and public institutions.


The PSR opinion poll’s total size of the sample was 1270 adults who were interviewed in 127 randomly selected locations, and findings present a margin error of 3%. The opinion poll was conducted with the support of the Konrad Adenauer Stiftung in Ramallah.