Thursday, December 26, 2013

SNAPSHOTS

(AHI Institute in Washington D.C.)
                                       (Speaker at IIHA Conference)


With Chris Pelaghias, president of ERPIC and amb. Panagiotis Makris, f. Head of the Center for Analysis & Planning (MFA) in Prague




                Monograph entitled "The Crisis in Syria and Options for the Future", 2013 - Copyright: RIEAS


                                                       

Always great to participate in regional meetings in search of viable political solutions.. 


With prof. Spiegel in Doha back in May 2013


    

Major Meetings in Qatar
   


Book Release on "The Crisis in Syria: Diplomacy, Regional Challenges and Options", Copyright: ISDA



(Intervention at Intelligence Squared Greece Event)

Friday, November 22, 2013

JORDAN’S FLOWERFUL ARAB SPRING: POLITICAL AND PRESS REFORMS

By Antonia L. Dimou*, 


(Photo from: www.kinghussein.gov.jo)


ABSTRACT

The wave of pro-democracy protests that swept across the Arab world has stricken like an earthquake that is changing the ground underneath. The protests have been dubbed the “Arab Spring”. It is a spring that supported the notion that Arab people crave freedom, democracy, justice, economic reforms and the right to demand accountability from their governments.

The successful uprisings in Tunisia and Egypt that ended in the removal of longtime regimes have inspired the people of the region to seize the opportunity of taking the future into their own hands. Historically speaking, what has happened is without precedent in the Arab world. For the first time, Arab countries illustrated the potential of spontaneous democracy, or more accurately, democratisation from within.

Given that, the present analysis focuses on the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan whose position as a bridge between the Levant and the Persian Gulf provides it a unique geopolitical standing in the Middle East. Admittedly, out of the turbulent events in the region, Jordan took practical steps to unleash a political reform process to widen public participation in decision making, icluding the promotion of free speech, and to strengthen pillars of democracy.

The Arab Spring has affected Jordan and set off the wind of major political and economic reforms that will be presented with focus on the freedom of Press, as they offer a historic opportunity to observe the birth of the new from the old, and provide a momentum of transformation where the idea of democracy advances as the best solution for politically handling multiple in-country interests and structures.


A. Jordan’s Spring of Reforms: All-time Classic Focus

Jordan is a moderate country strategically located in the heart of the Arab world governed under the political system of constitutional monarchy.The kingdom has been motivated by the momentous events in Tunisia and Egypt, which inspired protests on Jordanian soil demanding economic and political reforms. Jordanian protests are led by the Islamic movement and by a popular protest movement that allegedly encompasses the National Front of Reform, and the four tribe coalition which represents the Kingdom’s major four large tribes namely the Bani Hassan, the Bani Sakher, the al-Da’aja and the Al-Ajarme considered the backbone of the Kingdom.

However, the major differentiation of the Jordanian events from those in the rest of the Arab world is that protestors have asked for reform of the current system, not its abolition.

Jordan has an important record on reform initiatives which were delayed due to major regional events. Most prominent were the 2003 American military campaign against Iraq, the 2005 parliamentary elections in Egypt where the Muslim Brotherhood secured 20 percent of the seats, the November 2005 bombing of three hotels in Jordan by an armed wing of al Qaeda based in Iraq that killed 60 Jordanian nationals, the 2006 elections in the West Bank and Gaza where Hamas won the majority of parliamentary seats, and the 2007 Hamas takeover of the Gaza strip.

Additionally, reform initiatives were impeded by the reality of demographics in Jordan. The Jordanian-Palestinian "split" in the country has arisen as result of the forced migration of Palestinians who fled to Jordan, acquired nationality and citizenship, and now constitute about half of the population. Palestinian fears that reforms could potentially lead to the stripping of their rights, as well as Jordanian worries that any reform process may lead to the political empowerment of Palestinians who may attempt to create an alternative Palestinian homeland in Jordan, presented a major setback to last decade's reform initiatives. In other words, for a significant segment of the Jordanian society, political reforms and democratization equals Palestinization. However, this is a major challenge. In reality, the two peoples can easily remain united in the struggle for a political system based on justice, freedom, equal opportunities and individual rights. In a system that restores power to the masses, while maintaining Jordanian and Palestinian identities and dealing intelligently with the political reality, Jordan's people can be united.[1]

Notably, in the pre-Iraq war period, the Kingdom initiated the “Jordan First-Al Urdun Awlan” campaign, which attempted to articulate a comprehensive vision of economic and political reforms. The initiative provided the formation of a national committee to deal with different economic and political issues and debated five distinct themes, namely the possibility of establishing a constitutional court; the introduction of a parliamentary quota for women; the enactment of anti-corruption measures; the drafting of a new political parties law with the aim of ending the state of fragmentation among political parties; and, the setting of rules to cover relations between civil society, professional organizations and the state.

Equally significant reform initiative was the 2005 Jordanian National Agenda, a blueprint for political, economic and social reforms that envisioned approaching the reform process in a holistic, rather than a piecemeal, way. The committee of the National Agenda consisted of representatives from political parties including the Muslim Brotherhood, the parliament, civil society, women activists, the media, the government and the private sectors, and reached recommendations in three interdependent areas, namely the economic and social policies, basic rights and freedoms, and state infrastructure. In the field of political reforms, the National Agenda proposed new laws to open up elections and prevent discrimination against women. In July 2006, the government of then Prime Minister Maarouf Bakhit assembled a forum of 700 participants over a two-day period to address the political, economic and social challenges facing the Kingdom. Capitalizing on the findings of the National Agenda, participants produced the "We Are All Jordan – Kulna al Urdun" document. The document was a clear attempt at political reform and selected a list of fifteen priorities. The major three were loyalty and nationalism, sovereignty of the state and the protection of national interests, and national security. The Bakhit government undoubtedly showed significant legislative initiative. Specifically, in November 2006, it passed an anti-corruption law that established an anti-corruption committee with broad powers. The law notably included in its definition of corruption actions related to nepotism (wasta).[2]

Coming to today's situation, the Jordanian leadership took speedy and practical steps to unleash a deep political reform process to reflect Jordan's vision of comprehensive reform, modernization and development. The chief of reform measures was the introduction of a new constitution that came into force on October 10, 2011, and included amendments to 42 constitutional articles that met certain central demands of the Jordanian protest movement. Most prominent was the establishment of a constitutional court and an independent elections oversight commission, and the provision that the dissolution of the parliament entails the dissolution of the government. A major concession was also the curtailing of some of the King’s powers with most representative, the revoke of his power to cancel parliamentary elections.[3]

It is deemed that these reform measures have not satisfied the opposition overall, most prominently, the Jordanian Muslim Brotherhood which has the ability and the political infrastructure to mobilize the streets. Sensing that it is empowered by the events in Libya and Egypt, and also by the crisis in Damascus since the Syrian Muslim Brotherhood reportedly plays a significant role as part of the outside opposition, the movement in Jordan demands for more extensive changes including the instate of a prime minister and a government elected by the people, the abolition of the King-appointed senate or alternatively, the instate of a senate elected by the people, the safeguard of the Judicial Council’s independency and the enact of a new elections law[4].
The so far refusal of the Jordanian Muslim Brotherhood not to participate in government and the political decision-making process in general, despite repeated official invitations, is estimated that it is dictated by the fact that people will start to expect solutions.[5] Once the movement runs government institutions and its members become ministers, then people will start to question their policies and outcome. Failure to deliver in the context of the actual decision-making may take away some of their legitimacy and popularity, therefore, so far avoidance to joining governments is translated into lack of urgency or need to govern and deliver on that.[6] The best example of this position is the failure of the Islamic movement of Hamas to deliver and its consequent declined popularity in Gaza.
Jordan envisions becoming a model of democracy, and though the manifestation of major past regional events led to the delay of the reform process, nowadays, the reality is reversed. The current wind of reforms that has blown up the entire region from Morocco to the Gulf accelerates Jordan’s long-time commitment to reforms and democratization. Concurrently at this critical time where the main factor of the revolutionary wave of protests is attributed to rising poverty and unemployment[7], a promise of economic gains has been extended to Jordan by the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) to join the organization. Relatively poor and facing high unemployment and yawning budget deficits, Jordan could benefit from concessional prices for oil and gas, better access for its citizens to work in the Gulf, and financial assistance. Jordan, run by a Sunni Muslim monarchy, some 750 miles from the Gulf, has a per-capita GDP of 5,300 dollars, while, by comparison, Saudi Arabia GDP per capita is 24,200 dollars.[8]

Massive protests in two of its member states urged the GCC to agree to provide Oman and Bahrain 10 billion dollars each over a decade in order to meet protesters' demands for higher living standards. This reality has created a precedence that Jordan may be looking for similar assistance. Enriched by climbing oil prices, the Gulf monarchies have been able to respond to their internal wave of protests with generous aid programs for their already-wealthy populations. Saudi Arabia alone has committed to spending 125 billion dollars, but in Jordan, the King has no alternative other than to increase deficit spending to cover the cost of handouts at a time when the Kingdom's economy is suffering under the weight of slow growth and higher global prices for food and energy. It is no secret that repeated interruptions in the pipeline delivering Egyptian natural gas to Jordan has forced the Kingdom to ration electricity and increase its import bill.

Therefore, the accession of energy-poor Jordan to the ranks of the predominantly oil-rich bloc of Gulf nations could offer an avenue for financial support for the Kingdom, while the political symbiosis in the Gulf club is the latest reflection of how the widespread protests in the Arab nations are reshaping the political landscape of the volatile Middle East.


B. Jordan’s Spring on Free Press and Media

Jordan has responded instantly to the Arab Spring by establishing mechanisms that aim to create new spark of reforms in the field of the Press and the Media, which can be translated into realities on the ground, and lead to the blossoming of democracy.  

The ability of the Press to bring about accountability and transparency is the bedrock of democracies on a global level. A radiant spotlight on the impact of the Arab Spring on free speech was evidenced recently in the 2013 World Press Freedom Index as released by the France-based non-profit organization Reporters without Borders. Interestingly, countries that have successfully overthrown their once repressive regimes lack media pluralism and have much to account with regards to free speech.[9]

Coming to Jordan, media freedoms have improved in the Kingdom in the wake of the Arab Spring, while after more than two years since Arab Spring protests erupted, media activists in Jordan acknowledge that a boost is given to the freedom of the press, and journalists have started tackling issues that used to be taboo in the past.

Jordan hoasts several independent newspapers, and the government has a majority stake in major daily Al-Rai, and a minority stake in the second largest in circulation nation-wide daily Al-Dustour. Additionally, the Kingdom hosts the Jordan Media City (JMC) that was launched in 2001 as the first private media city in the region with the aim to provide the regional and international media industry with state of the art technologies. Specifically, JMC envisions to becoming the leading media hub in the region, to uplink television channels to cover the world, and towards this end, JMC awarded a multi-million US dollar contract to supply equipment and software for the operation of ninety playout channels and one hundred back-hauled channels.[10] 

The 2003 Audio Visual Law ended the government monopoly on broadcasting, and the Kingdom’s first privately owned television channel was launched as a pilot project in 2007, but later stalled. Satellite dishes are allowed, and pan-Arab news channels remain popular. The use of internet has increased and reportedly, more than 35 percent of the population had access to the web in 2011. Jordanian blogs have also continued to flourish throughout the recent years with several ones having become the focal point for the organization and the evolvement of popular protests.

The Press and the media in Jordan have been close to the Arab Spring winds. According to a special report issued by the Center for Defending the Freedom of Journalists (CDFJ) in May 2011, there has been increase in media freedom during the Arab Spring. As cited in the report, 15.4% of journalists find that media freedom has increased significantly, compared to the nearly 0% who thought so in previous reports. The report also acknowledged that one of the main gains of the Arab Spring, as far as the media is concerned, is that journalists broke the barrier of fear while reporting on local developments.

In line with the Jordanian constitution’s guarantee of freedom of speech and expression, the Jordanian government amended the Press and Publications Law No. 8 of 1998 in 2012 with the aim to enhance the media and Press environment.  With a royal stamp on the law, amendments to the Press and Publications Law have attempted to make online media register with the Press and Publications Department and towards this end, registration fees were lowered from JD10,000 to JD1,000.[11]

The Amendments have primarily dealt with the regulation of websites accessible in Jordan. Many consider that Amendments were needed to regulate websites, hold the responsible parties accountable, and place an obligation on individuals or entities interested in covering Jordan's internal and external news to register and get licensed like those in the print press.[12]

Amendments have contained four major changes to the original Press and Publications Law of 1998, starting with Article 49 which thereon requires that all Electronic Publications that publish news, press reports, press releases, and comments relevant to the domestic or external affairs of Jordan must be registered and licensed with the Department of Press and Publications “by virtue of the Director’s decision”.[13] The registration and license requirements apply to all Electronic Publications irrespective of their location of operation. The Amendment of Article 49 has placed an affirmative duty on Electronic Publications to monitor content to ensure that it does not contain false information or information unrelated to the subject of the news. If an Electronic Publication is found to be in violation of the Press and Publications Law or its Amendments, the Director has the authority to block the pertinent website and close its administrative offices located in Jordan.

The second major amendement has been that of Article 38 which prohibits the publication of material that abuses a recognized religion, content that offends or insults Prophets, content that insults religious beliefs, and expands the notion of individual dignity by prohibiting the publication of “anything that includes contempt, slander, or defamation of individuals or affects their personal freedom”.


The third amendment that was made to Article 48 of the Press and Publications Law imposes a lower fine on Periodical Publications that are issued without a license, foreseeing that Periodical Publications which violate the Press and Publications Law will be fined an amount not less than one thousand dinars and not more than five thousand dinars. However, more significantly, the Amendments allow the Director of the Press and Publications Department to shut down outlets and institutions that issue Periodical Publications in violation of the Press and Publications Law. Such Periodical Publications can be confiscated and subsequently prohibited from further issuance.

Last but not least, the fourth major amendment provides that tribunals have jurisdiction over Press and Publications Law cases related to crimes committed; (i) in violation of the Press and Publications Law; (ii) in violation of the Press and Publications Law (whether through print or audio-visual media); and (iii) against the domestic and external security of Jordan.

In line with the reform promises that the government made at the height of the popular protests in Jordan in 2011, the amembed legislation has been viewed as an institutionalized reform. Since then, the Press and the media have acted as magistrate getting rid of the stigma of one-sided news coverage by reporting and op-editing extensively on cases of domestic corruption. Most representative corruption cases that were covered by the online and printed press were those of former intelligence chief Mohammed al-Dahabi, and business tycoon Khaled Shahin. According to online and printed articles, Jordan's former head intelligence for the period of 2005-2008 was sentenced to 13 years in prison on charges of embezzling public funds, money laundering and abuse of office. As reported by the Jordanian press, the court in Amman fined him approximately 30 million dollars, and ordered him to return the 34 million dollars he allegedly laundered and embezzled during his time in office.[14] The second case of corruption that was disclosed in detail by the Jordanian Press was that of Khaled Shahin, a businessman convicted in a case related to the Jordan Petroleum Refinery Company (JPRC) expansion project, and who served three years in prison for bribery.[15]

The 2012 amendments to the Press and Publications Law of 1998 have undoubtedly contributed to enhancing the media and press environment however critics argue that implementation suffers from arbitrary classification and distribution of information by different ministries and state institutions. Critics also complain that while the outlets for news have increased, they are often blocked from obtaining information on government policies and officials. Concurrently, there is a prevailing belief amongst local journalists that a “soft containment” policy is pursued by business entities in an attempt to dominate the media sector. A recent survey conducted by Al Quds Centre for Political Studies showed that methods of soft containment on journalists are practiced by businessmen with a percentage of 69, influential figures with a percentage of 32.2, and civic society organizations with a percentage of 31.[16]

In a coordinated effort to address gaps and Press freedom violations, a group of deputies submitted in early February 2013 a memorandum to re-amend the Press and Publications Law of 1998.[17] In their motion, deputies called on the government to scrap various articles, including the one that gives the Press and Publications Department director the authority to block news websites that do not obtain licences in accordance with the law. The memo also addressed technical issues like that of removing an article which conditions that news websites must be run by an editor-in-chief who has been a member of the Jordan Press Association for at least five years.[18]

Undoubtedly, Jordan’s speedy and practical steps to unleash genuine media and Press reforms aim to reflect the Kingdom’s vision of comprehensive modernization and development in a way that can be translated into realities on the ground and provide a blueprint for a better future for the Jordanian people.


EPILOGUE

In the often tumultuous politics of the Middle East, the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan has traditionally steered a cautious and successful course in international relations largely relying on conservative foreign and domestic policies.

The momentum events of the Arab Spring have swept across the region and have stricken like an earthquake that is changing the ground underneath. In response, Jordan capitalized on its own record of past reform initiatives, and accelerated a genuine political reform process including those of the Press and media reforms with the aim to prepare the ground for comprehensive democracy.  As Arab Spring events unfold, Jordan is offered the golden opportunity to turn itself into a model of democracy and provide a prospectus for a better future not only for its own people, but for the people of the entire region.


ENDNOTES



[1] For a broad overview, See Rosemary Hollis, Khalil Shikaki and Mustafa Hamarneh, Jordanian-Palestinian Relations: Where To?, Royal Institute of International Affairs, London, 1997

[2] Antonia Dimou, “Spring of Reforms for the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan”, Worldpress (News and Views from Around the World), June 12, 2011.

[3] http://www.filmirsad.com/, August 18, 2011

[4] Interview with Ruheil Gharaibe leading figure of the Jordanian Muslim Brotherhood, Amman, November 30, 2011

[5] The Islamic Action Front, the political branch of the Jordanian Muslim Brotherhood, calls for the formation of an emergency government to carry out “urgent reforms” reiterating demands for wider constitutional amendments. The demand comes amidst ongoing negotiations between Islamists and decision-makers over the former’s participation in the political process, widely viewed by observers alike as key to the legitimacy of any upcoming elections. Taylor Luck, “Jordan’s Islamists Call for a Salvation Government”, Jordan Times (Daily), Decemebr 17, 2011

[6] Interview of Ibrahim Saif with Ekaterina Kudashkina, Voice of Russia, October 19, 2011.

[7] King Abdallah said in an interview with the Washington Post that “The Arab Spring did not start because of politics; it started because of economics – poverty and unemployment… What keeps me at night is the economic situation because if people are going to get back on the streets, it is because of economic challenges, not political”, The Washington Post, October 24, 2011

[8] “The Revolution Index: The State of Middle East States”, February 4, 2011, CIA World Factbook, Congressional Research Service, UN data, US Census Bureau, and Transparency.org

[9] The press freedom index that Reporters Without  Borders publishes every year measures the level  of freedom of information in nearly 180 countries.  It reflects the degree of freedom that journalists,  news organizations enjoy in each country, and the efforts made by the authorities to ensure respect for this freedom. The Index is based partly on a questionnaire that is sent to partner organizations (18 freedom of expression NGOs located in all five continents), to a  network of 150 correspondents, and to journalists, researchers, jurists and human rights activists.

[10] For more on the Jordan Media City,
See: http://www.jordanmediacity.com/en/7/JMC

[11] This is provided by the amendment of Article 48 of the Press and Publications Law of 1998. More than 80 news websites, out of over 475, have already registered

[12] For more on Jordan’s Amendments to the Press and Publications Law, See http://www.tamimi.com/en/publication/publications/section-3/october/jordans-amendments-to-the-press-and-publications-law.html

[13] The Director being the General Director of the Department of Press and Publications.

[14] Khaled Neimat, “Former Intelligence Chief Sentenced to 13 Years in Jail”, Jordan Times, November 11, 2012

[15] Khaled Neimat, “Court Extends Jail Term of Business Tycoon”, Jordan Times, November 27, 2012

[16] Jordanian Media Monitor, Survey on “Soft Containment and Its Effect on the Independence of the Media”, Al-Quds Center for Political Studies, accessed at: http://alqudscenter.org/uploads/Soft_Containment_3.pdf

[17] Hani Hazaimeh, “MPs Call for Amending Press Law”, Jordan Times, February 11, 2013

[18] Licensing responsibilities for television and radio are shared between the Council of Ministers, the Audio Visual Commission (AVC), and the Telecommunications Regulatory Commission (TRC). The Council of Ministers is responsible for granting, revoking, and renewing licenses, but does so based on the recommendations of the AVC.


* The article was first published at the Journal of Mediterranean and Balkan Intelligence (JMBI), Vol 1, No 1, June 2013, Copyright JMBI

Monday, October 7, 2013

CYPRUS: The Time Has Come...

Note by the author: The following op-ed was originally published back in 2008 by the International Affairs Forum, a publication of the Center for International Relations based in Washington D.C.
http://www.ia-forum.org/Content/ViewInternalDocument.cfm?ContentID=6283




Written by: Antonia Dimou, Fellow, Center for Strategic Studies at the University of Jordan, and Editor Jordan, World Security Network (WSN), 07-Apr-08 


Today, the Mediterranean is on the frontlines. Perhaps, it is the frontline of a global struggle for peace and development. In solving long-term conflicts, in achieving genuine development and reform, in all these ways, the Mediterranean is engaged in a great enterprise. The results will impact the entire world. And we, who are on that frontline, look at the friends of peace and freedom for support and partnership. What I would like to stress in this article, is that for Greece, the core challenge is the resolution of the Cyprus conflict. Given the headlines from elsewhere in the region, some may wonder whether the resolution of the conflict is, indeed, still at the core of solving regional conflicts. Let me just say, that the Cyprus conflict remains central not only to the regional but also to the international agenda. It seems that the time has come to find a viable and long-lasting solution to the problem. The resolution of the Cyprus conflict could guarantee stability in the Mediterranean region and serve as a precedent for solving other regional disputes. The most prominent is the Palestinian-Israeli one. 

Greece supports a solution to the problem of Cyprus for a number of geopolitical reasons. First, partition is not deemed beneficial for either Greece or Cyprus. The 1947 Indo-Pakistani partition is a good example. The partition was accompanied by an arms race that has ultimately turned into a nuclear rivalry. It is not difficult to realize, that an ongoing arms race in Cyprus would guarantee further instability in the region. 

Furthermore, the possibility of the permanent division of the Cypriot capital will constitute a detrimental development for the Israeli and Palestinian claims over an undivided Jerusalem, which is the major issue to be tackled in any Arab–Israeli peace agreement. A federal solution would unite Nicosia and would strengthen Israel’s and Palestine’s case for a similar preferred position on the final status of Jerusalem. A shared rule arrangement in Cyprus could also be the model for a broader regional structure between Israel, Palestine and Jordan. Perhaps, the major fear of Greece is the emergence of fundamental Islamic upheavals in the Northern part of the country. Radicalization of Islamic elements, due to economic and political unrest, is a possible development that runs contrary to regional security. 

To conclude, it would be useful if more U.S. and European/European Union (EU) diplomacy were directed towards the Cyprus issue. An agreement on the political future of the island may bring positive spill over effects for the Eastern Mediterranean and the wider region. Peacemaking and multilateral cooperation is a step towards a future of hope but it is only one step. The young people of the region know that their leaders need to revitalise the engines of peace to promote growth and development. When regional leaders address their youth, they can see their energy and belief in the future. What the young people of the region are asking their political leaders to do is to make a difference, to have the courage to make a difference, to act now to make a difference. Political leaders must respond... 

Photo accessed at: http://liopetri.net/liopetri/old_map.html

Friday, September 27, 2013

Syria: The Puzzle of the Day After





Following are excerpts of Antonia Dimou's discussion with RIEAS on September 9th, 2013 on the crisis in Syria and the implications if the crisis were to turn into a regional and ideological conflict.


Looking beyond the high diplomatic activity of the past few weeks and as the American president builds the coalition of the willing, to paraphrase the language of previous regional interventions one should try to have a speculative look at the implications, if the Syrian crisis turns into a regional and ideological conflict. 

It is true that the crisis in Syria has been cataclysmic because of the increasing number of victims, its duration and the flow of refugees into neighboring countries, like Jordan and Turkey. With more than 1 million Syrians now resident as refugees in surrounding countries and somewhere between 2.5 and 3.5 million Syrians internally displaced, - Iraq, Jordan, Lebanon, and Turkey all face daunting challenges in feeding and housing the refugees, and their internal political situations have been roiled by disputes on what to do about Syria. 

The implications of a possible Syrian descent into chaos can be of enormous magnitude given that the Syrian political opposition remains weak, fragmented, and in exile, while the Free Syrian Army is fragmented, an army in name only. In fact, even though the newly re-branded Syrian National Coalition has widened its base of support and the military opposition has taken the fight throughout the country, Islamist factions, especially the al-Qaeda-aligned Al Nusrah Front, have increased in popularity and power. It is no secret that Islamic extremists, led by the al-Qaeda in Iraq creation, Jabhat al-Nusrah, have made the most gains in all the fighting. The extremists, so far, are the shock troops, willing to take casualties and move from region to region. 

Because of this reality, the replacement of the current Syrian regime by a new non-representative democratic government in terms of ethnic and religious inclusion is considered major challenge that could potentially not only lead the Arab country to division but also expand the turmoil into neighbouring countriesThe situation requires solutions. This is the way to look at things and one should turn an eye on parts of the Syrian opposition that believe in national unity in the sense that all members of Syrian society have a stake in the future including the Allawites and the minorities. Given that we are running out of time, a common position should be that the Syrian army, a major institution, should remain intact and serve as guarantor of stability that prevents the problems that we saw in Iraq

But again one should no be naïve. Even if tomorrow we get the best government in Syria and the armed forces are functioning well, it will take a couple of years to clean up the bad elements that are inside the borders of Syria today. As King Abdallah of Jordan said in one of his past interviews and, I quote, “The Middle East is a mosaic and the problem that challenges leaders in the Middle East is if there is life after Bashar what, is that? And a lot of people care because the unknown is more scaring than the known”. To move one step further from the Jordanian King’s statement, one has to be aware of how serious and how critical the current stage is, along with the posed security challenges.

The Shia-Sunni competition for leadership of the Muslim world has already been strained by Syria with elements within Jordan, Lebanon, and Turkey taking sides in this doctrinal struggle. The ability of outside powers to interfere in Syria will indoubtedly create long-term instability, possibly divide the country into sectarian enclaves and run the risk of creating a “second Iraq”. In fact, a number of regional experts envision possible sectarian enclaves such as the Alawi coastline with Hezbollah in Lebanon; the Sunni north, east, and south aligned with Sunnis in IraqJordanLebanon, and Turkey; and Alevis in Turkey with Alawites in Syria.

Interestingly, Israel, while worried over chaos in Syria, has so far avoided direct involvement in the crisis, however, Israel has laid out some security issues that could lead it to become actually involved. The key security issues include, chemical weapons and/or missile delivery systems falling into “hostile” hands like Hezbollah, and al-Qaeda affiliated groups; the existence of extremist groups on the ceasefire line; and the possible destabilization of Jordan.

To be more concrete, Syrian division along sectarian lines will indisputably impact the existent battleground of regional influence. To start, the imperial sphere of Iran that extends to the shores of the Mediterranean is expected to be affected and for this the Islamic Republic will try to guarantee that its projection of power to Syria, Lebanon, and the Palestinian Territories remains intact

For its part, Turkey, that has played a key role for any change in Syria, expects to be rewarded. Turkey sees any change in Syria as positive to eliminate consolidation of Iranian influence near its borders, and as opportunity to present a soft Islamic model that could influence Islamic-leaning governments which could come to power in the Arab world.  

Additionally, the Gulf States would like to see a kind of restoration of the regional balance of power in their favor, if a new Syria, fragmented or otherwise, weakens its alignment with Iran whose regional influence, the last decade, has increased greatly due to the political transformation of Iraq, the presence of Shiite communities in the Persian Gulf and the cementing of relations in the Levant via Syria and Hezbollah. 

Last but not least, given that the region is interlinked in terms of politics and society, extremism could spread into other countries. The sum of all fears is that the Syrian conflict and possible division could expand into fitna between the region’s extremists and peoples.

To sum up, it is evident that a divided Syria could lead to an open-ended conflict that could undermine the stability of the region and the future of its people for generations to come; dividing Syria is not in anyone’s interest including the US, and tampering with Syria’s unity could be a recipe for destruction. On the contrary, it is the responsibility of all to safeguard the future of Syria and end the suffering of its people.

Tuesday, September 10, 2013

Syria: The Puzzle of the Day After

Antonia L. Dimou, Senior RIEAS Advisor and Associate at the CSS, Jordan, discusses the Syrian crisis and attempts to have a speculative look at the implications, if the crisis turns into a regional and ideological conflict.





September 9, 2013
Copyright: Rieas.gr




Saturday, September 7, 2013

ATHENS SEES LARGER ROLE IN MIDEAST PEACE PROCESS


By Robert Hodierne, Amman


Bellow is a piece published by Defense News back in 2002. The article primarily reports on the speech delivered by Antonia L. Dimou, then Middle East Studies Coordinator at the Greek Ministry of Defense's Defense Analysis Institute in the context of the Special Operation Forces Exhibition and Conference (SOFEX) organized under the patronage of King Abdallah II by Jordan's Armed Forces, Defense News and INEGMA.




Friday, June 14, 2013

MONOGRAPH - THE CRISIS IN SYRIA: DIPLOMACY, REGIONAL CHALLENGES AND OPTIONS


By Antonia Dimou 

Published by the Institute for Security and Defense Analyses, Athens, Greece.

http://www.i-sda.eu

ISBN 978-618-80356-1-4 (Master E-Book)