Antonia Dimou

THE ARAB SPRING:
A REGION IN TRANSITION**

"

"The Reason of the Protests in the Northern Part of Cyprus was not Lack of Democracy"

"

INTERVIEW WITH Dr. Sylvia Tiryaki

Conducted by Antonia Dimou

Q. We have witnessed protests and heavy clashes between protesters and governments in the region in recent months. Is there a common cause and what are the reasons of unrest in the countries of North Africa and the Arabian Peninsula?

A. It seems that there is indeed both a common cause and common reason of unrest in the countries of North Africa and the Arabian Peninsula. All the countries that have been affected -- or are on the verge of being affected -- by popular uprisings have had one thing in common: a very lax approach to democracy.Whether the leaders of those countries have been “self-imposed” or helped to rule by the foreign powers, both groups have tended to totalitarian rather than democratic practices.

All in all, they hardly have represented the real will of majority in respective countries. This, topped with the strained economic conditions and unemployment, resulted into a series of revolutions.

In fact, it is interesting to observe that the revolution did not get an immediate positive response from the Western democracies. People from the region were many times asked to start and support democratic reforms and were promised the help, including President Obama in his famous Cairo speech.

Q. The events in Libya and the international military intervention have provided a significant test but also an opportunity for Turkey's stated desire to create a foreign policy that combines realism with idealism. How has the Libyan situation highlighted Ankara’s stature as a more independent regional leader in the Middle East and its efforts to maintain its traditional alliances, taking into account the recent tensions between Turkey and NATO as well as some of its member countries, in particular France?

A. It seems that Turkey’s support for cease-fire is gaining firmer ground, also among other NATO’s member states. Also, it has been no secret that the influence of Turkey in the region is not only because of its ties with ruling elites but – or maybe particularly – with the peoples of region. In this light, Turkey, seeing it from its own perspective, would like to see the region ruled by democracy in peace, whoever is in charge. Just remember Prime Minister’s Erdogan speech in which he addressed former Egyptian President Mubarak.

When it comes to France, I think that part of the tension between these two countries is stemming also from the role both of them tend to play in the region. (Even though I believe that given historical and geographical terms, Turkey’s engagements make more sense). France, as we know, has been taking a leading role not only in designing the future Mediterranean, that includes also part of the region known as MENA, but has been trying to spread and strengthen its influence also in the Middle East.

Q. A number of initiatives to solve the Libyan conflict have been proposed by various governments. In this context, Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erodgan announced a three-phase road map which provides for a ceasefire, the withdrawal of Qaddafi's forces from the besieged cities, the need to set up security zones for humanitarian aid, and, most importantly, a comprehensive democratic transformation process that will take into account the legitimate interests of the Libyan people. That said, how do you evaluate the Turkish peace initiative and what are the motives for Turkey to establish itself as mediator?

A. As far as Libya is concerned, cease-fire between rebels and Gaddafi’s option in Libya still remains the best option and priority for Turkey. From the statements made by Turkey till now on this issue, it seems that Turkey is in favour of a democratically supported leadership in Libya but at the same time is trying to avoid any further bloodshed.

It seems that Turkey believes that with the prolongation of war between rebels and the still official Libyan government, the consolidation of the country is being put in jeopardy. I believe this approach is much in line with what Turkey has demonstrated many times in last years that is Turkey favours diplomacy, though with a slow progress, over a resort to the military force.

Q. The uprisings in Tunisia and Egypt have triggered a domino effect of protests calling for reform across the Arab world. On all fronts, Syria, a key regional player considered by certain regional circles as cornerstone of Turkey’s Middle East policy, is facing a wave of domestic protests. Realistically, Turkish-Syrian relations have flourished in recent years as Turkish-Israeli relations have waned and grown cold. The creation of an economic bloc of Turkey-Syria-Lebanon-Jordan, with the removal of visa requirements and the injection of Turkish investment and technological know-how, is an undoubted fact. That said what is your estimate on the possible impact that the prolongation of the domestic crisis in Syria could have on its multi-facet relationship with Turkey, and on the regional structure of power?

A. Continuity of instability in the region will have enormous consequences not only for Turkey but also for the rest of the world. We have already begun to pay huge prices for oil and gas and it seems to be only the beginning. On the other hand, for any regime to survive in this region, it should boost up its democratic credential and pursue an unabated reform process. If legitimate demands of the Syrian public are not addressed peacefully we are likely to see the spill over effects in that country too.

Just like the US was trying to manage the transition period in Egypt, Turkey through its good offices is trying to secure a peaceful and stabile transition in Syria. We should not forget that for having any transition to democracy, heads do not always have to fall down.

Q. The anti-regime protests in Tunisia, Egypt, Yemen and elsewhere have given rise to discussions as to whether Turkey's relative success at wedding democratic freedoms with religion can serve as a model. The Turkish model is quite interesting because Turkey has managed to marry conservative Islam with forms of western democracy without giving up traditional social values, while keeping the social base and the political structure in some kind of harmony. Do you agree with the notion that Turkey could present a genuine alternative model to regional countries like Egypt which currently undergo a political transformation?

A. Not really. Turkey’s historical encounter with democracy has been totally different than those in the countries of North Africa and the Arabian Peninsula. But, of course, Turkey can serve as an inspiration.

Yet, here I would like to draw attention to the article written by President Gul and published in New York Times on April 21 in which he argues that democracies can hardly be established in the Muslim world without solving the Israeli-Palestinian issue. Unless the conflict is solved in an even-handed manner, there will be always radicals exploiting it for their own ends blurring legitimacy of democracy.

Q. In recent months a series of protests took place in the northern part of Cyprus targeting the economic protocol signed with Turkey as well as the latest economic-measures package concluded in late 2009 which includes the privatization of some public institutions and wage cuts. What is your estimate for the protests in the northern part of Cyprus? Do you think that they have been inspired and motivated by the regional protests in Tunisia, Egypt and elsewhere?

A. It is needless to say that even though Cyprus is also located in the region, political systems established there have hardly anything in common with the regional political systems in question. The fact that the political system in the north part of Cyprus is de jure not recognized by other states but Turkey does not mean that de facto there is no running democracy. Turkish Cypriots have had couple of decades old experience with free democratic elections and their results.

Moreover, they did not rise against their own government. They protested against the government of the country they financially depend on. Turkey allocates annually about $580 million from its own budget for northern Cyprus. Northern Cyprus, on the other hand, needs this financial support because it has no other means to generate a state income. Political decisions of other countries not to trade with the Turkish Cypriots put it effectively into isolation.

So, the reason of the protests in the northern part of Cyprus was not a lack of democracy but austerity measures proposed by a country – i.e. Turkey -- that has been till now a source of the financial injections for the Turkish Cypriot economy.

* Dr. Sylvia Tiryaki is the Deputy Director of the Global Political Trends Center (GPoT) and a Vice-Chair of the International Relations Department of Istanbul Kültür University where she teaches courses on international law and political thought. She completed her Masters and doctoral studies at Comenius University in Bratislava, at the Faculty of Law. Between 2003 and 2008 she worked as the Cyprus project coordinator and a senior research fellow at the Turkish Economic and Social Studies Foundation (TESEV) Foreign Policy Program. A regular columnist at the Turkish Daily News, Dr. Tiryaki writes extensively for various national and international academic journals and newspapers. Her fields of expertise include Turkish foreign policy, Cyprus, the Middle East and North Africa, Armenia and the European Union.

** SOURCE: Middle East Observer, Issue #4, Vol. 2, March-June 2011