Friday, November 22, 2013

JORDAN’S FLOWERFUL ARAB SPRING: POLITICAL AND PRESS REFORMS

By Antonia L. Dimou*, 


(Photo from: www.kinghussein.gov.jo)


ABSTRACT

The wave of pro-democracy protests that swept across the Arab world has stricken like an earthquake that is changing the ground underneath. The protests have been dubbed the “Arab Spring”. It is a spring that supported the notion that Arab people crave freedom, democracy, justice, economic reforms and the right to demand accountability from their governments.

The successful uprisings in Tunisia and Egypt that ended in the removal of longtime regimes have inspired the people of the region to seize the opportunity of taking the future into their own hands. Historically speaking, what has happened is without precedent in the Arab world. For the first time, Arab countries illustrated the potential of spontaneous democracy, or more accurately, democratisation from within.

Given that, the present analysis focuses on the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan whose position as a bridge between the Levant and the Persian Gulf provides it a unique geopolitical standing in the Middle East. Admittedly, out of the turbulent events in the region, Jordan took practical steps to unleash a political reform process to widen public participation in decision making, icluding the promotion of free speech, and to strengthen pillars of democracy.

The Arab Spring has affected Jordan and set off the wind of major political and economic reforms that will be presented with focus on the freedom of Press, as they offer a historic opportunity to observe the birth of the new from the old, and provide a momentum of transformation where the idea of democracy advances as the best solution for politically handling multiple in-country interests and structures.


A. Jordan’s Spring of Reforms: All-time Classic Focus

Jordan is a moderate country strategically located in the heart of the Arab world governed under the political system of constitutional monarchy.The kingdom has been motivated by the momentous events in Tunisia and Egypt, which inspired protests on Jordanian soil demanding economic and political reforms. Jordanian protests are led by the Islamic movement and by a popular protest movement that allegedly encompasses the National Front of Reform, and the four tribe coalition which represents the Kingdom’s major four large tribes namely the Bani Hassan, the Bani Sakher, the al-Da’aja and the Al-Ajarme considered the backbone of the Kingdom.

However, the major differentiation of the Jordanian events from those in the rest of the Arab world is that protestors have asked for reform of the current system, not its abolition.

Jordan has an important record on reform initiatives which were delayed due to major regional events. Most prominent were the 2003 American military campaign against Iraq, the 2005 parliamentary elections in Egypt where the Muslim Brotherhood secured 20 percent of the seats, the November 2005 bombing of three hotels in Jordan by an armed wing of al Qaeda based in Iraq that killed 60 Jordanian nationals, the 2006 elections in the West Bank and Gaza where Hamas won the majority of parliamentary seats, and the 2007 Hamas takeover of the Gaza strip.

Additionally, reform initiatives were impeded by the reality of demographics in Jordan. The Jordanian-Palestinian "split" in the country has arisen as result of the forced migration of Palestinians who fled to Jordan, acquired nationality and citizenship, and now constitute about half of the population. Palestinian fears that reforms could potentially lead to the stripping of their rights, as well as Jordanian worries that any reform process may lead to the political empowerment of Palestinians who may attempt to create an alternative Palestinian homeland in Jordan, presented a major setback to last decade's reform initiatives. In other words, for a significant segment of the Jordanian society, political reforms and democratization equals Palestinization. However, this is a major challenge. In reality, the two peoples can easily remain united in the struggle for a political system based on justice, freedom, equal opportunities and individual rights. In a system that restores power to the masses, while maintaining Jordanian and Palestinian identities and dealing intelligently with the political reality, Jordan's people can be united.[1]

Notably, in the pre-Iraq war period, the Kingdom initiated the “Jordan First-Al Urdun Awlan” campaign, which attempted to articulate a comprehensive vision of economic and political reforms. The initiative provided the formation of a national committee to deal with different economic and political issues and debated five distinct themes, namely the possibility of establishing a constitutional court; the introduction of a parliamentary quota for women; the enactment of anti-corruption measures; the drafting of a new political parties law with the aim of ending the state of fragmentation among political parties; and, the setting of rules to cover relations between civil society, professional organizations and the state.

Equally significant reform initiative was the 2005 Jordanian National Agenda, a blueprint for political, economic and social reforms that envisioned approaching the reform process in a holistic, rather than a piecemeal, way. The committee of the National Agenda consisted of representatives from political parties including the Muslim Brotherhood, the parliament, civil society, women activists, the media, the government and the private sectors, and reached recommendations in three interdependent areas, namely the economic and social policies, basic rights and freedoms, and state infrastructure. In the field of political reforms, the National Agenda proposed new laws to open up elections and prevent discrimination against women. In July 2006, the government of then Prime Minister Maarouf Bakhit assembled a forum of 700 participants over a two-day period to address the political, economic and social challenges facing the Kingdom. Capitalizing on the findings of the National Agenda, participants produced the "We Are All Jordan – Kulna al Urdun" document. The document was a clear attempt at political reform and selected a list of fifteen priorities. The major three were loyalty and nationalism, sovereignty of the state and the protection of national interests, and national security. The Bakhit government undoubtedly showed significant legislative initiative. Specifically, in November 2006, it passed an anti-corruption law that established an anti-corruption committee with broad powers. The law notably included in its definition of corruption actions related to nepotism (wasta).[2]

Coming to today's situation, the Jordanian leadership took speedy and practical steps to unleash a deep political reform process to reflect Jordan's vision of comprehensive reform, modernization and development. The chief of reform measures was the introduction of a new constitution that came into force on October 10, 2011, and included amendments to 42 constitutional articles that met certain central demands of the Jordanian protest movement. Most prominent was the establishment of a constitutional court and an independent elections oversight commission, and the provision that the dissolution of the parliament entails the dissolution of the government. A major concession was also the curtailing of some of the King’s powers with most representative, the revoke of his power to cancel parliamentary elections.[3]

It is deemed that these reform measures have not satisfied the opposition overall, most prominently, the Jordanian Muslim Brotherhood which has the ability and the political infrastructure to mobilize the streets. Sensing that it is empowered by the events in Libya and Egypt, and also by the crisis in Damascus since the Syrian Muslim Brotherhood reportedly plays a significant role as part of the outside opposition, the movement in Jordan demands for more extensive changes including the instate of a prime minister and a government elected by the people, the abolition of the King-appointed senate or alternatively, the instate of a senate elected by the people, the safeguard of the Judicial Council’s independency and the enact of a new elections law[4].
The so far refusal of the Jordanian Muslim Brotherhood not to participate in government and the political decision-making process in general, despite repeated official invitations, is estimated that it is dictated by the fact that people will start to expect solutions.[5] Once the movement runs government institutions and its members become ministers, then people will start to question their policies and outcome. Failure to deliver in the context of the actual decision-making may take away some of their legitimacy and popularity, therefore, so far avoidance to joining governments is translated into lack of urgency or need to govern and deliver on that.[6] The best example of this position is the failure of the Islamic movement of Hamas to deliver and its consequent declined popularity in Gaza.
Jordan envisions becoming a model of democracy, and though the manifestation of major past regional events led to the delay of the reform process, nowadays, the reality is reversed. The current wind of reforms that has blown up the entire region from Morocco to the Gulf accelerates Jordan’s long-time commitment to reforms and democratization. Concurrently at this critical time where the main factor of the revolutionary wave of protests is attributed to rising poverty and unemployment[7], a promise of economic gains has been extended to Jordan by the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) to join the organization. Relatively poor and facing high unemployment and yawning budget deficits, Jordan could benefit from concessional prices for oil and gas, better access for its citizens to work in the Gulf, and financial assistance. Jordan, run by a Sunni Muslim monarchy, some 750 miles from the Gulf, has a per-capita GDP of 5,300 dollars, while, by comparison, Saudi Arabia GDP per capita is 24,200 dollars.[8]

Massive protests in two of its member states urged the GCC to agree to provide Oman and Bahrain 10 billion dollars each over a decade in order to meet protesters' demands for higher living standards. This reality has created a precedence that Jordan may be looking for similar assistance. Enriched by climbing oil prices, the Gulf monarchies have been able to respond to their internal wave of protests with generous aid programs for their already-wealthy populations. Saudi Arabia alone has committed to spending 125 billion dollars, but in Jordan, the King has no alternative other than to increase deficit spending to cover the cost of handouts at a time when the Kingdom's economy is suffering under the weight of slow growth and higher global prices for food and energy. It is no secret that repeated interruptions in the pipeline delivering Egyptian natural gas to Jordan has forced the Kingdom to ration electricity and increase its import bill.

Therefore, the accession of energy-poor Jordan to the ranks of the predominantly oil-rich bloc of Gulf nations could offer an avenue for financial support for the Kingdom, while the political symbiosis in the Gulf club is the latest reflection of how the widespread protests in the Arab nations are reshaping the political landscape of the volatile Middle East.


B. Jordan’s Spring on Free Press and Media

Jordan has responded instantly to the Arab Spring by establishing mechanisms that aim to create new spark of reforms in the field of the Press and the Media, which can be translated into realities on the ground, and lead to the blossoming of democracy.  

The ability of the Press to bring about accountability and transparency is the bedrock of democracies on a global level. A radiant spotlight on the impact of the Arab Spring on free speech was evidenced recently in the 2013 World Press Freedom Index as released by the France-based non-profit organization Reporters without Borders. Interestingly, countries that have successfully overthrown their once repressive regimes lack media pluralism and have much to account with regards to free speech.[9]

Coming to Jordan, media freedoms have improved in the Kingdom in the wake of the Arab Spring, while after more than two years since Arab Spring protests erupted, media activists in Jordan acknowledge that a boost is given to the freedom of the press, and journalists have started tackling issues that used to be taboo in the past.

Jordan hoasts several independent newspapers, and the government has a majority stake in major daily Al-Rai, and a minority stake in the second largest in circulation nation-wide daily Al-Dustour. Additionally, the Kingdom hosts the Jordan Media City (JMC) that was launched in 2001 as the first private media city in the region with the aim to provide the regional and international media industry with state of the art technologies. Specifically, JMC envisions to becoming the leading media hub in the region, to uplink television channels to cover the world, and towards this end, JMC awarded a multi-million US dollar contract to supply equipment and software for the operation of ninety playout channels and one hundred back-hauled channels.[10] 

The 2003 Audio Visual Law ended the government monopoly on broadcasting, and the Kingdom’s first privately owned television channel was launched as a pilot project in 2007, but later stalled. Satellite dishes are allowed, and pan-Arab news channels remain popular. The use of internet has increased and reportedly, more than 35 percent of the population had access to the web in 2011. Jordanian blogs have also continued to flourish throughout the recent years with several ones having become the focal point for the organization and the evolvement of popular protests.

The Press and the media in Jordan have been close to the Arab Spring winds. According to a special report issued by the Center for Defending the Freedom of Journalists (CDFJ) in May 2011, there has been increase in media freedom during the Arab Spring. As cited in the report, 15.4% of journalists find that media freedom has increased significantly, compared to the nearly 0% who thought so in previous reports. The report also acknowledged that one of the main gains of the Arab Spring, as far as the media is concerned, is that journalists broke the barrier of fear while reporting on local developments.

In line with the Jordanian constitution’s guarantee of freedom of speech and expression, the Jordanian government amended the Press and Publications Law No. 8 of 1998 in 2012 with the aim to enhance the media and Press environment.  With a royal stamp on the law, amendments to the Press and Publications Law have attempted to make online media register with the Press and Publications Department and towards this end, registration fees were lowered from JD10,000 to JD1,000.[11]

The Amendments have primarily dealt with the regulation of websites accessible in Jordan. Many consider that Amendments were needed to regulate websites, hold the responsible parties accountable, and place an obligation on individuals or entities interested in covering Jordan's internal and external news to register and get licensed like those in the print press.[12]

Amendments have contained four major changes to the original Press and Publications Law of 1998, starting with Article 49 which thereon requires that all Electronic Publications that publish news, press reports, press releases, and comments relevant to the domestic or external affairs of Jordan must be registered and licensed with the Department of Press and Publications “by virtue of the Director’s decision”.[13] The registration and license requirements apply to all Electronic Publications irrespective of their location of operation. The Amendment of Article 49 has placed an affirmative duty on Electronic Publications to monitor content to ensure that it does not contain false information or information unrelated to the subject of the news. If an Electronic Publication is found to be in violation of the Press and Publications Law or its Amendments, the Director has the authority to block the pertinent website and close its administrative offices located in Jordan.

The second major amendement has been that of Article 38 which prohibits the publication of material that abuses a recognized religion, content that offends or insults Prophets, content that insults religious beliefs, and expands the notion of individual dignity by prohibiting the publication of “anything that includes contempt, slander, or defamation of individuals or affects their personal freedom”.


The third amendment that was made to Article 48 of the Press and Publications Law imposes a lower fine on Periodical Publications that are issued without a license, foreseeing that Periodical Publications which violate the Press and Publications Law will be fined an amount not less than one thousand dinars and not more than five thousand dinars. However, more significantly, the Amendments allow the Director of the Press and Publications Department to shut down outlets and institutions that issue Periodical Publications in violation of the Press and Publications Law. Such Periodical Publications can be confiscated and subsequently prohibited from further issuance.

Last but not least, the fourth major amendment provides that tribunals have jurisdiction over Press and Publications Law cases related to crimes committed; (i) in violation of the Press and Publications Law; (ii) in violation of the Press and Publications Law (whether through print or audio-visual media); and (iii) against the domestic and external security of Jordan.

In line with the reform promises that the government made at the height of the popular protests in Jordan in 2011, the amembed legislation has been viewed as an institutionalized reform. Since then, the Press and the media have acted as magistrate getting rid of the stigma of one-sided news coverage by reporting and op-editing extensively on cases of domestic corruption. Most representative corruption cases that were covered by the online and printed press were those of former intelligence chief Mohammed al-Dahabi, and business tycoon Khaled Shahin. According to online and printed articles, Jordan's former head intelligence for the period of 2005-2008 was sentenced to 13 years in prison on charges of embezzling public funds, money laundering and abuse of office. As reported by the Jordanian press, the court in Amman fined him approximately 30 million dollars, and ordered him to return the 34 million dollars he allegedly laundered and embezzled during his time in office.[14] The second case of corruption that was disclosed in detail by the Jordanian Press was that of Khaled Shahin, a businessman convicted in a case related to the Jordan Petroleum Refinery Company (JPRC) expansion project, and who served three years in prison for bribery.[15]

The 2012 amendments to the Press and Publications Law of 1998 have undoubtedly contributed to enhancing the media and press environment however critics argue that implementation suffers from arbitrary classification and distribution of information by different ministries and state institutions. Critics also complain that while the outlets for news have increased, they are often blocked from obtaining information on government policies and officials. Concurrently, there is a prevailing belief amongst local journalists that a “soft containment” policy is pursued by business entities in an attempt to dominate the media sector. A recent survey conducted by Al Quds Centre for Political Studies showed that methods of soft containment on journalists are practiced by businessmen with a percentage of 69, influential figures with a percentage of 32.2, and civic society organizations with a percentage of 31.[16]

In a coordinated effort to address gaps and Press freedom violations, a group of deputies submitted in early February 2013 a memorandum to re-amend the Press and Publications Law of 1998.[17] In their motion, deputies called on the government to scrap various articles, including the one that gives the Press and Publications Department director the authority to block news websites that do not obtain licences in accordance with the law. The memo also addressed technical issues like that of removing an article which conditions that news websites must be run by an editor-in-chief who has been a member of the Jordan Press Association for at least five years.[18]

Undoubtedly, Jordan’s speedy and practical steps to unleash genuine media and Press reforms aim to reflect the Kingdom’s vision of comprehensive modernization and development in a way that can be translated into realities on the ground and provide a blueprint for a better future for the Jordanian people.


EPILOGUE

In the often tumultuous politics of the Middle East, the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan has traditionally steered a cautious and successful course in international relations largely relying on conservative foreign and domestic policies.

The momentum events of the Arab Spring have swept across the region and have stricken like an earthquake that is changing the ground underneath. In response, Jordan capitalized on its own record of past reform initiatives, and accelerated a genuine political reform process including those of the Press and media reforms with the aim to prepare the ground for comprehensive democracy.  As Arab Spring events unfold, Jordan is offered the golden opportunity to turn itself into a model of democracy and provide a prospectus for a better future not only for its own people, but for the people of the entire region.


ENDNOTES



[1] For a broad overview, See Rosemary Hollis, Khalil Shikaki and Mustafa Hamarneh, Jordanian-Palestinian Relations: Where To?, Royal Institute of International Affairs, London, 1997

[2] Antonia Dimou, “Spring of Reforms for the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan”, Worldpress (News and Views from Around the World), June 12, 2011.

[3] http://www.filmirsad.com/, August 18, 2011

[4] Interview with Ruheil Gharaibe leading figure of the Jordanian Muslim Brotherhood, Amman, November 30, 2011

[5] The Islamic Action Front, the political branch of the Jordanian Muslim Brotherhood, calls for the formation of an emergency government to carry out “urgent reforms” reiterating demands for wider constitutional amendments. The demand comes amidst ongoing negotiations between Islamists and decision-makers over the former’s participation in the political process, widely viewed by observers alike as key to the legitimacy of any upcoming elections. Taylor Luck, “Jordan’s Islamists Call for a Salvation Government”, Jordan Times (Daily), Decemebr 17, 2011

[6] Interview of Ibrahim Saif with Ekaterina Kudashkina, Voice of Russia, October 19, 2011.

[7] King Abdallah said in an interview with the Washington Post that “The Arab Spring did not start because of politics; it started because of economics – poverty and unemployment… What keeps me at night is the economic situation because if people are going to get back on the streets, it is because of economic challenges, not political”, The Washington Post, October 24, 2011

[8] “The Revolution Index: The State of Middle East States”, February 4, 2011, CIA World Factbook, Congressional Research Service, UN data, US Census Bureau, and Transparency.org

[9] The press freedom index that Reporters Without  Borders publishes every year measures the level  of freedom of information in nearly 180 countries.  It reflects the degree of freedom that journalists,  news organizations enjoy in each country, and the efforts made by the authorities to ensure respect for this freedom. The Index is based partly on a questionnaire that is sent to partner organizations (18 freedom of expression NGOs located in all five continents), to a  network of 150 correspondents, and to journalists, researchers, jurists and human rights activists.

[10] For more on the Jordan Media City,
See: http://www.jordanmediacity.com/en/7/JMC

[11] This is provided by the amendment of Article 48 of the Press and Publications Law of 1998. More than 80 news websites, out of over 475, have already registered

[12] For more on Jordan’s Amendments to the Press and Publications Law, See http://www.tamimi.com/en/publication/publications/section-3/october/jordans-amendments-to-the-press-and-publications-law.html

[13] The Director being the General Director of the Department of Press and Publications.

[14] Khaled Neimat, “Former Intelligence Chief Sentenced to 13 Years in Jail”, Jordan Times, November 11, 2012

[15] Khaled Neimat, “Court Extends Jail Term of Business Tycoon”, Jordan Times, November 27, 2012

[16] Jordanian Media Monitor, Survey on “Soft Containment and Its Effect on the Independence of the Media”, Al-Quds Center for Political Studies, accessed at: http://alqudscenter.org/uploads/Soft_Containment_3.pdf

[17] Hani Hazaimeh, “MPs Call for Amending Press Law”, Jordan Times, February 11, 2013

[18] Licensing responsibilities for television and radio are shared between the Council of Ministers, the Audio Visual Commission (AVC), and the Telecommunications Regulatory Commission (TRC). The Council of Ministers is responsible for granting, revoking, and renewing licenses, but does so based on the recommendations of the AVC.


* The article was first published at the Journal of Mediterranean and Balkan Intelligence (JMBI), Vol 1, No 1, June 2013, Copyright JMBI

Monday, October 7, 2013

CYPRUS: The Time Has Come...

Note by the author: The following op-ed was originally published back in 2008 by the International Affairs Forum, a publication of the Center for International Relations based in Washington D.C.
http://www.ia-forum.org/Content/ViewInternalDocument.cfm?ContentID=6283




Written by: Antonia Dimou, Fellow, Center for Strategic Studies at the University of Jordan, and Editor Jordan, World Security Network (WSN), 07-Apr-08 


Today, the Mediterranean is on the frontlines. Perhaps, it is the frontline of a global struggle for peace and development. In solving long-term conflicts, in achieving genuine development and reform, in all these ways, the Mediterranean is engaged in a great enterprise. The results will impact the entire world. And we, who are on that frontline, look at the friends of peace and freedom for support and partnership. What I would like to stress in this article, is that for Greece, the core challenge is the resolution of the Cyprus conflict. Given the headlines from elsewhere in the region, some may wonder whether the resolution of the conflict is, indeed, still at the core of solving regional conflicts. Let me just say, that the Cyprus conflict remains central not only to the regional but also to the international agenda. It seems that the time has come to find a viable and long-lasting solution to the problem. The resolution of the Cyprus conflict could guarantee stability in the Mediterranean region and serve as a precedent for solving other regional disputes. The most prominent is the Palestinian-Israeli one. 

Greece supports a solution to the problem of Cyprus for a number of geopolitical reasons. First, partition is not deemed beneficial for either Greece or Cyprus. The 1947 Indo-Pakistani partition is a good example. The partition was accompanied by an arms race that has ultimately turned into a nuclear rivalry. It is not difficult to realize, that an ongoing arms race in Cyprus would guarantee further instability in the region. 

Furthermore, the possibility of the permanent division of the Cypriot capital will constitute a detrimental development for the Israeli and Palestinian claims over an undivided Jerusalem, which is the major issue to be tackled in any Arab–Israeli peace agreement. A federal solution would unite Nicosia and would strengthen Israel’s and Palestine’s case for a similar preferred position on the final status of Jerusalem. A shared rule arrangement in Cyprus could also be the model for a broader regional structure between Israel, Palestine and Jordan. Perhaps, the major fear of Greece is the emergence of fundamental Islamic upheavals in the Northern part of the country. Radicalization of Islamic elements, due to economic and political unrest, is a possible development that runs contrary to regional security. 

To conclude, it would be useful if more U.S. and European/European Union (EU) diplomacy were directed towards the Cyprus issue. An agreement on the political future of the island may bring positive spill over effects for the Eastern Mediterranean and the wider region. Peacemaking and multilateral cooperation is a step towards a future of hope but it is only one step. The young people of the region know that their leaders need to revitalise the engines of peace to promote growth and development. When regional leaders address their youth, they can see their energy and belief in the future. What the young people of the region are asking their political leaders to do is to make a difference, to have the courage to make a difference, to act now to make a difference. Political leaders must respond... 

Photo accessed at: http://liopetri.net/liopetri/old_map.html

Friday, September 27, 2013

Syria: The Puzzle of the Day After





Following are excerpts of Antonia Dimou's discussion with RIEAS on September 9th, 2013 on the crisis in Syria and the implications if the crisis were to turn into a regional and ideological conflict.


Looking beyond the high diplomatic activity of the past few weeks and as the American president builds the coalition of the willing, to paraphrase the language of previous regional interventions one should try to have a speculative look at the implications, if the Syrian crisis turns into a regional and ideological conflict. 

It is true that the crisis in Syria has been cataclysmic because of the increasing number of victims, its duration and the flow of refugees into neighboring countries, like Jordan and Turkey. With more than 1 million Syrians now resident as refugees in surrounding countries and somewhere between 2.5 and 3.5 million Syrians internally displaced, - Iraq, Jordan, Lebanon, and Turkey all face daunting challenges in feeding and housing the refugees, and their internal political situations have been roiled by disputes on what to do about Syria. 

The implications of a possible Syrian descent into chaos can be of enormous magnitude given that the Syrian political opposition remains weak, fragmented, and in exile, while the Free Syrian Army is fragmented, an army in name only. In fact, even though the newly re-branded Syrian National Coalition has widened its base of support and the military opposition has taken the fight throughout the country, Islamist factions, especially the al-Qaeda-aligned Al Nusrah Front, have increased in popularity and power. It is no secret that Islamic extremists, led by the al-Qaeda in Iraq creation, Jabhat al-Nusrah, have made the most gains in all the fighting. The extremists, so far, are the shock troops, willing to take casualties and move from region to region. 

Because of this reality, the replacement of the current Syrian regime by a new non-representative democratic government in terms of ethnic and religious inclusion is considered major challenge that could potentially not only lead the Arab country to division but also expand the turmoil into neighbouring countriesThe situation requires solutions. This is the way to look at things and one should turn an eye on parts of the Syrian opposition that believe in national unity in the sense that all members of Syrian society have a stake in the future including the Allawites and the minorities. Given that we are running out of time, a common position should be that the Syrian army, a major institution, should remain intact and serve as guarantor of stability that prevents the problems that we saw in Iraq

But again one should no be naïve. Even if tomorrow we get the best government in Syria and the armed forces are functioning well, it will take a couple of years to clean up the bad elements that are inside the borders of Syria today. As King Abdallah of Jordan said in one of his past interviews and, I quote, “The Middle East is a mosaic and the problem that challenges leaders in the Middle East is if there is life after Bashar what, is that? And a lot of people care because the unknown is more scaring than the known”. To move one step further from the Jordanian King’s statement, one has to be aware of how serious and how critical the current stage is, along with the posed security challenges.

The Shia-Sunni competition for leadership of the Muslim world has already been strained by Syria with elements within Jordan, Lebanon, and Turkey taking sides in this doctrinal struggle. The ability of outside powers to interfere in Syria will indoubtedly create long-term instability, possibly divide the country into sectarian enclaves and run the risk of creating a “second Iraq”. In fact, a number of regional experts envision possible sectarian enclaves such as the Alawi coastline with Hezbollah in Lebanon; the Sunni north, east, and south aligned with Sunnis in IraqJordanLebanon, and Turkey; and Alevis in Turkey with Alawites in Syria.

Interestingly, Israel, while worried over chaos in Syria, has so far avoided direct involvement in the crisis, however, Israel has laid out some security issues that could lead it to become actually involved. The key security issues include, chemical weapons and/or missile delivery systems falling into “hostile” hands like Hezbollah, and al-Qaeda affiliated groups; the existence of extremist groups on the ceasefire line; and the possible destabilization of Jordan.

To be more concrete, Syrian division along sectarian lines will indisputably impact the existent battleground of regional influence. To start, the imperial sphere of Iran that extends to the shores of the Mediterranean is expected to be affected and for this the Islamic Republic will try to guarantee that its projection of power to Syria, Lebanon, and the Palestinian Territories remains intact

For its part, Turkey, that has played a key role for any change in Syria, expects to be rewarded. Turkey sees any change in Syria as positive to eliminate consolidation of Iranian influence near its borders, and as opportunity to present a soft Islamic model that could influence Islamic-leaning governments which could come to power in the Arab world.  

Additionally, the Gulf States would like to see a kind of restoration of the regional balance of power in their favor, if a new Syria, fragmented or otherwise, weakens its alignment with Iran whose regional influence, the last decade, has increased greatly due to the political transformation of Iraq, the presence of Shiite communities in the Persian Gulf and the cementing of relations in the Levant via Syria and Hezbollah. 

Last but not least, given that the region is interlinked in terms of politics and society, extremism could spread into other countries. The sum of all fears is that the Syrian conflict and possible division could expand into fitna between the region’s extremists and peoples.

To sum up, it is evident that a divided Syria could lead to an open-ended conflict that could undermine the stability of the region and the future of its people for generations to come; dividing Syria is not in anyone’s interest including the US, and tampering with Syria’s unity could be a recipe for destruction. On the contrary, it is the responsibility of all to safeguard the future of Syria and end the suffering of its people.

Tuesday, September 10, 2013

Syria: The Puzzle of the Day After

Antonia L. Dimou, Senior RIEAS Advisor and Associate at the CSS, Jordan, discusses the Syrian crisis and attempts to have a speculative look at the implications, if the crisis turns into a regional and ideological conflict.





September 9, 2013
Copyright: Rieas.gr




Saturday, September 7, 2013

ATHENS SEES LARGER ROLE IN MIDEAST PEACE PROCESS


By Robert Hodierne, Amman


Bellow is a piece published by Defense News back in 2002. The article primarily reports on the speech delivered by Antonia L. Dimou, then Middle East Studies Coordinator at the Greek Ministry of Defense's Defense Analysis Institute in the context of the Special Operation Forces Exhibition and Conference (SOFEX) organized under the patronage of King Abdallah II by Jordan's Armed Forces, Defense News and INEGMA.




Friday, June 14, 2013

MONOGRAPH - THE CRISIS IN SYRIA: DIPLOMACY, REGIONAL CHALLENGES AND OPTIONS


By Antonia Dimou 

Published by the Institute for Security and Defense Analyses, Athens, Greece.

http://www.i-sda.eu

ISBN 978-618-80356-1-4 (Master E-Book) 


Wednesday, May 29, 2013

THE CRISIS IN SYRIA AND OPTIONS FOR THE FUTURE

EIEA E-Book No.2, June 2013 
By Antonia L. Dimou (RIEAS Senior Advisor) 
Published on May 29, 2013 




Open publication - Free publishing - More crisis


http://www.euintelligenceacademy.org/publications/

Wednesday, January 9, 2013

THE NATIONAL HERALD: Understanding the Greek-Euro Crisis is Helpful in Managing Personal Investments



Tuesday, June 19, 2012 Last Update: 3:10 PM ET






By Amb. Patrick N. Theros



If you cannot figure out what is going on in Greece, Europe, and beyond, you are not alone. As far away as Doha, Qatar, a blue-ribbon panel featured at the UCLA-sponsored Doha Forum argued for hours on the likelihood that on June 17, Greeks will vote in a government dedicated to agreeing to or rejecting the troika-imposed “Memorandum of Agreement” that might or might not enable Greece to pay its debts.

The panel also argued at length on the possibility or probability or certainty of Greece’s expulsion from the Eurozone or its voluntary withdrawal or a default on its debt while staying with the euro. This led to a discussion on how the EU, or just the Germans, will manage one of several possible courses of actions.

They concluded that the EU has immunized Europe from the consequences of a Greek default accompanied by a Greek withdrawal (or not) from the Eurozone, unless the markets respond to such a default or withdrawal by overwhelming Spain and/or Italy and Ireland. This in turn seems to depend on whether the new French President, Francois Hollande, gives in to German Chancellor Merkel’s insistence on absolute adherence to her demands that Greece fulfill every last whit of the Memorandum and that Europe adhere absolutely to the German-imposed “stability and austerity package” with or without a “growth package” of undefined parameters. On the other hand, Merkel may respond to voters across Europe who find austerity unacceptable except for German voters, who support them. At the end of the session the panel concluded that all of the above might occur.

A detailed look at the discussion offered greater clarification. Greek voters in May proved that they could clearly distinguish between the mainstream politicians in New Democracy and PASOK – who were so discredited by corruption that voting for them induces nausea – and the unrealistic and demagogic politicians of the right and left who have no idea how avoid adhering to the Memorandum but at least had not been close enough to the reins of power to join in the corruption – except, of course for the leadership of the traditional Greek communist party, KKE – whose leaders had enriched themselves as much as any centrist politicians. 

The voters punished the mainstream and voted for the “clean” parties, but not enough to allow a majority government to come together. At that point, the new politicians proved that they were no different than the mainstream in their inability to set aside personal gain for the common good. Greece will hold new elections on June 17th that promise only to change the ratios between all the self-serving politicians. In the meantime, the parties selected a caretaker government that promised to do nothing – apparently not even defend the country in the event of a Turkish attack – except preside over elections.

Greek voters have come to understand that adhering to the Memorandum guarantees a long and painful descent into poverty for the country, and no chance of ever paying off its debts while rejecting the Memorandum and departing from the euro (if they can) guarantees the same results but much faster.

Voters are further outraged that Germany‘s terms for the bailout included a commitment by Greek politicians to stop all legal action against the German companies that bribed the same politicians in the first place and, further, honor a previous contract to buy ammunition and spare parts for its tanks from German manufacturers even if they can buy them from American factories for half the price. This, of course, simplifies the choices facing Greek voters.

As for the euro, most pundits predicted Greece’s Eurozone partners would expel Greece from the club regardless of the consequence, despite the fact that nothing in the rulebook permits the expulsion of a member. Theoretically, Greece could voluntarily expel itself from the Eurozone if, that is, it had a government with the wits and determination to shut down all bank, close the borders and impose draconian measures to prevent any currency flight, but all before it announced it was heading for the exits and reintroducing the drachma.

With the deaths of John Metaxas and Basil II “Slayer of Bulgars,” the number of Greek politicians with guts to do this has declined dramatically. Besides, it would violate EU treaties. That leaves Greece with another alternative: stay in the euro and tell its creditors that it will absolutely not pay the next installments on its debt unless they renegotiate the loan terms. New York did something similar in 1975 led by Governor Hugh Carey and a team that pulled forced all the players – unions, banks, legislators, debt holders, community groups – to make sacrifices. Diogenes couldn’t find an honest man in Athens; can we find one nowadays?

Finally, it appears that with the electoral defeat of French President Sarkozy and his   replacement by the Socialist Hollande, the EU and the troika have stopped worrying about Greece and are putting all their energy into fighting over grand ideas for the long-term, while threatening Greece with various forms of mayhem should it not hold to the Memorandum, even if the Memorandum guarantees that the austerity measures that will guarantee default.

Merkel’s current austerity program has pushed another 10 European countries into recession while the Conservatives’ austerity program has done the same for the United Kingdom, despite the fact that it still has its own currency. American Tea Party politicians are licking their chops at the possibility of doing the same to the United States if they can parlay a European crisis into an economic setback for President Obama and achieve an electoral victory in November.

All of the above ought to clarify the subject and offer clear guidance on how to manage your investment portfolio.


The Hon. Ambassador Theros is president of the U.S.-Qatar Business Council. He served in the U.S. Foreign Service for 36 years, mostly in the Middle East, and was American Ambassador to Qatar from 1995 to 1998. He also directed the State Department’s Counter-Terrorism Office, and holds numerous U.S. Government decorations.

Friday, November 16, 2012

MONOGRAPH - THE CRISIS IN SYRIA: DIPLOMACY, REGIONAL CHALLENGES AND OPTIONS


Monograph by Antonia Dimou on the Crisis in Syria to be released soon. Published by the Institute for Security and Defense Analyses based in Athens, Greece.







The monograph focuses on the first ten months of the crisis in Syria (March 2011 till December 2011). Being written in the region as the Syrian crisis sparked, flared and spread, this monograph makes no pretence about providing answers to complex issues addressed, thus aiming to increase understanding through a series of conducted interviews with officials, international relations experts from the region, Baathist and Islamic figures as well as Syrian oppositionists.


Monday, October 22, 2012

Intelligence Squared, Greece: Debate on “Peace Cannot Be Enforced, It Must Be Inspired”



Speakers:

In support of the proposal; 
Lord Bates, Member of the UK Parliament- House of Lords, Commenced the “Walk of Truce” from Olympia to London
Peter Economides, Brand Strategist, Founder and CEO of Felix BNI

Against the proposal; 
Prof. Athanasios Platias, Chair of the Department fo International and European Studies, University of Peiraeus
Maria-Daniella Marouda, Professor of International Law, Panteion University

Moderator: Nikos Andritsos, Journalist




  


During the Debate Antonia Dimou posed the following question:


First of all, I would like to thank you for your excellent presentations, and my question is addressed to each one of you. Many times in your presentations you referred to Syria and also there was specific reference to the international levels and tools that are existent in order to enforce or inspire peace. According to the American Pentagon, Peace enforcement entails the physical interposition of armed forces between ongoing combatants to establish a cease-fire that does not exist. According to the UN, peace enforcement refers to efforts to prevent a ceasefire from collapsing or to reinstate a failed cease-fire. With this in mind, let’s move to Syria. The August 15 Report of the International Independent Commission Inquiry on Syria blames government forces and opposition armed groups for the massacre in Houla. The Report says that violence has increased in intensity and spread into new areas since February 2012 and that although the opposition is not party to the Geneva Conventions, it has to respect the principles of the International Humanitarian Law. In the context of this reality and given the increasing death toll, can international efforts to create a ceasefire in Syria succeed through peace enforcement or peace inspiration?

Maria Daniella Marouda: There are international tools and they are successful, if they are put into place. For Syria, you mentioned two definitions of enforcement and there is a third one actually, and this already shows how many problems we have with definitions, with different ideas, with different priorities. There is a third one saying that even though enforcement is associated often with authority and with violence, in the context of conflicts and peace, it’s more important the pressure, how you compel parties to come into the negotiating table and have an increased cooperation that will bring about a ceasefire, a truce and a peace agreement. So what we strive for in Syria is an opportunity to impose these mechanisms to have an increased cooperation of the parties to the conflict; if this cannot happen through the Security Council, it can happen through the General Assembly. Already, the second day of the Olympic Games again and the General Assembly issued a resolution, according to which resolution there should be an imposition of peace asking the Security Council to do it. There is a possibility institutionally in the United Nations to have the majority of States in the General Assembly to authorize imposition of measures for Syria.  So, this is a way out.

Lord Bates: Just briefly to add to those points. I do think that there was a very interesting point in the case of Syria, to say that is there a comparison into the level of resource that we put behind things. When we commenced my Walk one of the reasons why I commenced my Walk was because I was seeking to persuade the United Kingdom government, who have since repented their sin and come behind the initiative in a wonderful way, but I was seeking to persuade them to invest 20 million pounds in a project to promote peace and reconciliation under the Olympic Truce, and I failed and then a week later there was a resolution about Libya that went through the United Nations Security Council; it was passed by ten (10) people not the 193 countries that have backed the Olympic Truce and within a weekend we were able to assemble a navy, a billion dollar budget that apparently were found by somewhere and we were able to have incredible international cooperation to go in a military way. My argument is this; if only we gave a chance to put in the same resources behind peace and peace building that we put behind war, then we might find that it has more effect, if we talk some of the 180 billion dollars which the US government alone is spending in Afghanistan each year and spend some of that into efforts to bring about peace in Syria, we might get a different result. The problem is that we have become obsessed with military solutions and when you are a hammer, every problem looks like a nail.   



Results: 
36% in support of the Proposal 
60%  against the Proposal
4%  neutral position 


Athens, Wednesday 19 September, 2012 
Amphithreatre of Dim. Vileka, Building of the Hellenic Olympic Committee (HOC)

Video-Debate: "Peace Cannot Be Enforced, It Must Be Inspired"


The Intelligence Squared Greece and International Olympic Truce Centre debate on:

"Peace cannot be enforced, it must be inspired"
("Η ειρήνη εμπνέεται, δεν επιβάλλεται")



For the motion: 
Lord Michael Bates
Peter Economides


Against the motion:
Athanasios Platias
Maria - Daniela Marouda

Moderator: Nikos Andritsos

Friday, June 8, 2012

ISDA: 12th Doha Forum and Enriching the Middle East’s Economic Future Conference, May 20-22, 2012, Doha, State of Qatar




Source: http://i-sda.eu/main/news/12th-doha-forum-and-enriching-the-middle-east%E2%80%99s-economic-future-conference-may-20-22-2012-doha-state-of-qatar


Ms Antonia Dimou, head of the Middle East and Persian Gulf Unit of ISDA, attended the Doha Forum whichwrapped up ceremonies on the 22nd of May, concluding two days of talks focused on the year’s international economic developments that affected the Middle East and the world. Held at Doha’s Sheraton on the Corniche, the Forum co-sponsored by the Center for Middle East Development of the UCLA attracted 810 high-profile delegates from around the world including a number of heads of state.

Qatar’s Emir, Sheikh Hamad Bin Khalifa Al Thani, as well as Foreign and Prime Minister Sheikh Hamad Bin Jassim Bin Jabor Al Thani opened the event. Officials included HE Yousef Hussein Kamal, Minister of Economy and Finance of Qatar, prof. Klaus Schwab, Executive Chairman of the World Economic Forum, HE Mourad Medelci, Minister of Foreign Affairs of Algeria, HE Andrew Swiger, Senior Vice President of Exxon Mobil Corporation USA, HE George Mitchell. Former US Special Envoy for Middle East Peace (2009-2011), HE Jose Rodriguez Zapatero, former Prime Minister of Spain, HE Martin Torrijos, former President of Panama, HE Rafiq Abdel Salam, Minister of Foreign Affairs of Tunisia, Emma Bonino, Vice President of the Italian Senate and former EU Commissioner, Marwan Muasher, former Minister of Foreign Affairs of Jordan, Princess Basmah al-Saud of Inseed Holdings, Dr Teuta Arifi, Deputy Prime Minister of FYROM and HE Rodi Kratsa, Vice President of the European Parliament (2007-2012).




True to its original title, the Doha Forum is an established world-class event that celebrated its 12th edition and offered a sweeping overview of issues related to Development, Insights on the Political and Global Economy, Democracy, Development and Free Trade, the Future of Peace in the Middle East with special focus on the Arab and Israeli peace initiatives, Investment Climate in the GCC, Civil Rights, the Impact of the Arab Spring on Political Changes, and Future Trends. More focused, Doha Forum dedicated special sessions on the consequences of the Global Financial Crisis in Reshaping Economic Policy and hosted a workshop on the Greek financial collapse chaired by ISDA’s head of Middle East and Persian Gulf Unit, Ms Antonia Dimou. Speakers of the Workshop on Greece included Prof. Panayiotis Petrakis of the National and Kapodistrian University of Athens, Alexander Moraitakis, President of NUNTIUS Financial Company, Prof. Nikolaos Milonas of the National and Kapodistrian University of Athens, and Sven Behrendt, Founder and Managing Director of Geo Economica, Switzerland.

The workshop on Greece argued for hours on the likelihood of the rejection of or/and the renegotiation of the troika-imposed “Memorandum of Agreement”, and the significance of the upcoming June 17 where Greeks will vote for a new government. Wrapped up in complicated terms such as Gross Domestic Product, Sovereign Debt, and derivatives the workshop on Greece attempted to explain why Greece has collapsed and why a failure of the Greek economy would have a negative if not chaotic effect not only on Greece itself, but also the EU and the US.

The workshop on Greece addressed some of the most critical questions that dominate the political and economic thinking nowadays both in Greece and in Europe. The workshop also examined the scenario of a Greek exit from the euro-zone and if Greece pulls out of the euro, what will that mean for the single currency, what would that mean for the status of Portugal, Italy, Spain, Ireland as well as the attitude of the markets even towards France. It endeavoured to provide answers on, what would European policymakers do at the moment of a possible Greek exit to persuade investors and depositors that Greece was the exception proving the rule of euro-unity, and if it is utopian to expect member states to default and remain within the euro-zone, and why is that so.

This year the Doha Forum highlighted Greece as a player that impacts not only the world economy but also regional trends. Upon this approach, the Forum dedicated a special workshop on Gas Fields in the Eastern Mediterranean chaired by Jay Footlik and Mac Bernstein of the US. Speakers included Christodoulos Pelaghias, Chairman of ERPIC representing Cyprus, Ilan Mizrahi, President and CEO of TATOOM Consulting representing Israel, and John Nomikos, President of RIEAS representing Greece.

In concluding, the Doha Forum has undoubtedly highlighted Qatar’s emergence as a regional influence with the aim to achieve regional stability through the promotion of democratic and economic reforms.

Workshop on “Why Did Greece Collapse?” From Right to Left; Prof. Panayiotis Petrakis, Alexander Moraitakis, Antonia Dimou, Prof. Nikolaos Milonas, and Sven Behrendt

.

Overview of the Workshop on “Why Did Greece Collapse?”



Panel Overview of the Workshop on “Why Did Greece Collapse?”

Panel Overview of the Workshop on “Gas Fields in the Eastern Mediterranean”

Overview of the Workshop on “Why Did Greece Collapse?”

Members of the Workshop on “Why Did Greece Collapse?” From Right to Left; Alexander Moraitakis, president of NUNTIUS Financial Company, Sven Behrendt, Founder and Managing Director, Geo Economica, Switzerland, Prof. Nikolaos Milonas of the National and Kapodistrian University of Athens, Ms Antonia Dimou, ISDA and CMED of the UCLA, and Prof. Panayiotis Petrakis, National and Kapodistrian University of Athens

Tuesday, June 5, 2012

Doha Forum Workshop on "Why Did Greece Collapse?" - Opening Remarks


By Antonia Dimou, Chair of the Workshop


Members of the Workshop on “Why Did Greece Collapse?” From Right to Left;  Alexander Moraitakis, president of NUNTIUS Financial Company, Sven Behrendt, Founder and Managing Director, Geo Economica, Switzerland, Prof. Nikolaos Milonas of the National and Kapodistrian University of Athens, Ms Antonia Dimou, ISDA and CMED of the UCLA, and Prof. Panayiotis Petrakis, National and Kapodistrian University of Athens


Economists and market analysts have offered various explanations as to why a failure of the Greek economy would have drastic impact on the European and United States economies. Within these explanations, terms such as Gross Domestic Product, Sovereign Debt, and derivatives are used, which at times can be quite confusing to someone who is not educated in finance or economics. Wrapped up in these complicated terms this special session will attempt to explain why Greece has collapsed - or let us put it in the right frame, if Greece has actually collapsed - and why a failure of the Greek economy would have a negative if not chaotic effect on Greece itself, the EU and the US.

This session will address some of the most critical questions that dominate the political and economic thinking nowadays both in Greece and in Europe. We will examine the scenario of a Greek exit from the euro-zone and if Greece pulls out of the euro, what will that mean for the single currency, what would that mean for the status of Portugal, Italy, Spain, Ireland as well as the attitude of the markets even towards France. What would European policymakers do at the moment of a possible Greek exit to persuade investors and depositors that Greece was the exception proving the rule of euro-unity? Is it utopian to expect member states to default and remain within the euro-zone, and why is that so? According to some experts, “default, partial or otherwise, is an essential part of the necessary debt-reduction programme”. 

The question is: How should a rescue package be organised centrally and in a manner that deflates the debt-recession crisis, rather than inflame it further? We will also hear from our speakers if there is a Proposal coming either from Greece or Europe which can ensure fiscal stability. As you know, Greece heads in less than a month to new elections to produce a government which government will almost certainly press to renegotiate the country's bail-out terms. 

Therefore, it will be interesting to listen in this session if there is a Greek Plan that exchanges greater fiscal discipline for an Investment-led Recovery Program.


Monday, May 28, 2012

DOHA FORUM, ENRICHING THE MIDDLE EAST’S ECONOMIC FUTURE CONFERENCE, (20-22 MAY 2012), QATAR


Monday, 21st May 2012

11:00-12:30 
CMED Salwa (1, 2) 

Workshop (6): Why Did Greece Collapse? 

Chair: Antonia Dimou

Speakers:

- Panayiotis Petrakis, Chair of the Department of Development and International Economics of the National Kapodistrian University of Athens, Greece

- Alexander Moraitakis, President, NUNTIUS Financial Company, Greece

- Nikolaos Milonas, Professor of Finance, National and Kapodistrian University of Athens, Greece

- Sven Behrendt, Founder and Managing Director, Geo Economica, Switzerland

The full programme of the Doha Forum can be accessed at: